FELICIA LOCATED 780 MILES E. OF HILO, HAWAII (4p Sat Aug 8, 2009)

FELICIA LOCATED 780 MILES E. OF HILO, HAWAII

(Updated @ 4:00 p.m. Sat Aug 8, 2009 by  Wendy Osher)

Hurricane Felicia is now 780 miles East of Hilo, Hawaii and is moving West at around 15 mph.  An area of thunderstorms centered about 625 miles south southwest of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west northwest at about 15 mph.  Officials with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center say slow development is possible over the next two days.

FELICIA LOCATED 845 MILES E. OF HILO, HAWAII

(UPDATED @ 11 AM HST by Wendy Osher SAT AUG 8 2009)

HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY:

(Click to enlarge image. 5 day cone projection updated at 11 a.m. HST Sat AUG 8 2009. Image Courtesy The National Weather Service and NOAA)

AT 1100 AM HST THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 142.1 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND ARE NOW NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 981 MB…28.97 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.8N 142.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

(Updated by Wendy Osher @ 11 am HST. Information courtesy: Forecaster KNABB with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center)

FELICIA LOCATED 850 MILES E. OF HILO, HAWAII

(Updated @ 10:00 AM HST, SAT AUG 8 2009 by Wendy Osher)

(Click to enlarge image. Satellite imagery courtesy The Central Pacific Hurricane Center)

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing bulletins on hurricane Felicia, currently about 850 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Felicia was moving west around 15 mph.

2. An area of thunderstorms centered about 600 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west northwest around 15 mph. Slow development is possible over the next two days.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday morning.

(Posted by Wendy Osher, Information courtesy Forecaster DONALDSON of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center)

FELICIA DROPS TO CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE: WINDS 90 MPH, LOCATED 930 MILES E. OF HILO

(Updated @ 5 a.m. HST by 8/8/09 Wendy Osher, Information provided by The National Hurricane Center)

Hurricane FELICIA Public Advisory:

HURRICANE FELICIA HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN.

(Click image to enlarge. Rainbow Satellite imagery courtesy The National Hurricane Center an NOAA)

AT 500 AM HST, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES, 1500 KM…EAST OF HILO HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB…28.79 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…19.3N 140.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB

(INFORMATION PROVIDED BY FORECASTER BLAKE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER)

Hurricane FELICIA Forecast/Advisory:

(Click image to enlarge. 5-day-cone of error image courtesy The National Hurricane Center and NOAA)

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 140.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 75SE 65SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 140.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 140.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT… 90NE 75SE 65SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.8N 148.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT… 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 150.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 156.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.5N 161.0W…REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 166.5W…REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 140.8W

(INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER)

Hurricane FELICIA Forecast Discussion

(Click to enlarge image. RGB satellite imagery courtesy the National Hurricane Center and NOAA)

FELICIA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS FILLED SOMEWHAT…CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY…AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE KEPT AT 80 KT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND WHEN THEY ENTER THE EYE THIS AFTERNOON…AS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN CONTINUES…AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING 280/13. A WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CYCLONE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FELICIA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES…A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE…AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY FAST DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE…AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PART OF THE STORM IS HELD TO EAST WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES WESTWARD.

WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…THE MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS UNCHANGED…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WIND SHEAR NEAR THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS…THESE FACTORS CALL FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW WEAKENING. THEREAFTER…WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE…WHICH WOULD TEND TO DECREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING. HOWEVER…VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL. IN FACT…THE HIGH-RESOLUTIO HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO SHEAR APART IN 36-48 HOURS…AND THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF SHEAR COULD RESULT IN TOTAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

DATA FROM A G-IV MISSION THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF HAWAII SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.3N 140.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 19.6N 142.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 19.7N 145.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 19.8N 148.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 19.7N 150.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 156.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 19.5N 161.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 166.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

(UPDATED AT 5 A.M. HST BY WENDY OSHER: INFORMATION PROVIDED BY FORECASTER BLAKE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER)