Malika Dudley’s Daily Weather Forecast – Latest on ANA Effects

Satellite Image 9:30 a.m. HST, Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley

***A new hurricane and weather update as of 9:09 p.m. 10/18/14, is now posted at the following LINK.

At 9:15 a.m., a FLASH FLOOD WATCH was posted for Maui County and includes all islands through 6 p.m. tonight.

At 8 a.m., Ana’s maximum sustained winds were at 80 mph, gusting to 93 mph. Ana is moving northwest at 13 mph with hurricane force winds extending 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extending 105 miles from the center of the system.

The center of Tropical Storm Ana was last located near 19.0 N and 158.5 W, about 235 miles WSW of Hilo, Hawaiʻi; 190 miles SW of Kahului, Maui; 170 miles SSW of Kaunakakai, Molokaʻi; 160 miles SW of Lānaʻi City; and 165 miles SSW of Honolulu, Oʻahu on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014 at 8 a.m.

A general westward motion is expected to continue through the rest of the morning. A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, with a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the center of Ana will pass about 160 miles southwest of Oʻahu and Kauaʻi county tonight and Sunday.

Radar, 9:30 a.m. HST, Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Current situation:

TROPICAL STORM WATCH no longer in effect for Maui County.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY posted for south facing shores of Maui, Lānaʻi and Molokaʻi.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY posted for Maui county windward waters, Māʻalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel and the ʻAlenuihāhā Channel.

Rainfall has been slowly increasing across Maui county and Oʻahu, and should expect this trend towards increasing winds and showers. Strong gusty winds are possible in any heavier showers or thunderstorms through at least tonight.

Visual map of alerts posted statewide on October 18, 2014 at 9:30am / Image: NOAA

Potential Impacts:
Chance of tropical storm conditions is at 30 – 40% for Maui County leeward coastal waters.

Timing: Conditions will continue to gradually deteriorate. Tropical storm conditions are possible Saturday into Sunday. Maui County could be under the effects of ANA for about 24 hours.

Wind: For Haleakalā wind predictions are at 35 to 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph. Lower elevations of all islands are not expected to get winds above 39 mph at this time however there is still a small chance that could occur. Winds of 15 to 30 mph winds, gusting to 45 mph are possible Saturday afternoon and evening with the strongest winds on the southwest side of Maui County, particularly Lānaʻi and Molokaʻi.

Rain: Rainfall of 2 to 8 inches is possible across Maui County. Higher amounts are expected for mountainous terrain and along slopes where there is lift.

Surf: Ana will produce warning level surf of 10-15 ft along south facing shores Saturday and remain elevated through Sunday. Additional storm surge of 1 -2 feet for southeastern shores is likely.

Seas: Ana is expected to produce winds at 30 to 40 mph and seas up to 20 ft across leeward coastal waters Saturday through Sunday. An incoming northwest swell combined with strengthening winds will produce hazardous seas across the remainder of the coastal waters Saturday night and Sunday.