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Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Provided courtesy of:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/AFD.php

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Synopsis

05 Feb 2012 02:00:00 GMT - A weak front will move south over the islands bringing clouds and some showers tonight through Monday, but rainfall will be light. A stronger front will move rapidly southeast over the islands Monday night through Wednesday morning bringing heavier showers. Cool north winds behind the front will shift to trade winds on Thursday. The trades will persist through next weekend. Surf will reach the advisory level Monday night, then rise to well above the warning level Tuesday night.

Discussion

05 Feb 2012 02:00:00 GMT - The subtropical ridge has moved south of the islands bringing gentle to moderate west winds. The atmosphere is dry and stable so the weather will be mostly dry this evening. A weak front will move east southeast, reaching Kauai later tonight, then stalling near Maui Sunday night. This front will bring considerable cloudiness and some showers but rainfall accumulation will be light. A stronger front will reach Kauai around Tuesday evening and move rapidly southeast, pushing past the Big Island on Wednesday. There will be breezy southwest winds ahead of the front and locally strong north winds behind it. A trough aloft will make the atmosphere unstable enough for this front to produce more widespread and heavier showers. However, since the front will weaken as it moves farther southeast, the Big Island may not get much drought relief. A high will build east rapidly on Thursday and the cool north winds behind the front will switch to trade winds. Trade winds will persist into next weekend. The trade winds will produce some windward showers but rainfall will be light.

Marine

05 Feb 2012 02:00:00 GMT - A moderate northwest swell will build tonight, but surf will remain below the advisory threshold. A bigger northwest swell will push the surf above the advisory level Sunday night. A very large northwest swell will build on Tuesday producing surf well above the warning level Tuesday night. Surf could remain at warning levels through Thursday night.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

05 Feb 2012 02:00:00 GMT - Wind advisory until 600 pm Sunday evening for Big Island summits.

Footer

05 Feb 2012 02:00:00 GMT - DONALDSON