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Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/AFD.php

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Synopsis

23 May 2012 21:00:00 GMT - Strong and gusty trade winds will persist into the holiday weekend, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly the windward and mountain areas. An upper low passing over the state will bring an increase in showers to the eastern end of the state today along with strong winds on the high summits into Thursday.

Discussion

23 May 2012 21:00:00 GMT - A relatively strong surface high will dominate Hawaiian weather for the next week. The 1032 mb high is located about 1100 miles northeast of the state and will continue a slow northwest drift through tomorrow. As a result, trade winds will be locally strong and gusty in the short term. Subsidence ahead of an advancing upper level low led to gusty downsloping winds early last night, and a wind advisory remains in effect for all islands. As the upper low passes overhead today and tonight, advisory level wind gusts will likely be isolated and confined to ridge tops and areas to the lee of terrain. The current forecast calls for advisory level winds to persist into Thursday, and we will take a closer look at the likelihood of the stronger winds holding that long. The upper level low will lead to an increase in showers today, mainly for the eastern end of the state. The upper low is currently centered about 65 miles southeast of Hilo and is travelling to the west near 15 mph. Even though moisture is limited in the trade wind flow, this feature has managed to enhance showers moving onto windward Big Island slopes, where one quarter to one half of an inch of rain has fallen in the past 12 hours. Expect the enhanced rainfall to persist into the evening on windward Big Island and possibly Maui, and leeward Big Island slopes will see an increase in showers this afternoon. Across the rest of the state expect modest windward showers and dry leeward conditions. A stable and relatively dry trade wind flow will redevelop state-wide on Thursday as the upper low departs. Precipitable water values in the upwind trade wind flow look to be below normal, and with a strengthening inversion in place, rainfall will be on the lighter side and largely confined to windward slopes. Breezy and gusty trades will hold on through the holiday weekend then decline next week. The high will remain anchored in place through Monday then begin to weaken and move to the southeast on Tuesday. As the high weakens trade will gradually decline to moderate strength.

Marine

23 May 2012 21:00:00 GMT - Gale warnings are up for typically windy waters and channels around the Big Island and Maui, while small craft advisories are posted for remaining waters. We will take a closer look at the gale warning today, but expect at least small craft advisory conditions to hold through the holiday weekend. No significant swells expected, but short-period wind waves along east facing shores will slowly build during the next 12 to 24 hours. Surf is expected to remain just below advisory levels for east facing shores through the holiday weekend.

Aviation

23 May 2012 21:00:00 GMT - Upper low moving across the state today will enhance the trade wind showers. Mostly VFR conditions will persist with occasional MVFR cigs and vis over all windward areas and southeast Big Island around showers. The showers will be thick enough to produce mountain obscurations for windward Big Island and Maui today, and an airmet is now in effect for that. Also, an airmet for low level turbulence due to strong trade winds will likely continue through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

23 May 2012 21:00:00 GMT - High wind warning until 6 pm HST this evening for the Big Island summits. Gale warning until 6 pm HST Thursday for Pailolo and Alenuihaha channels, Maalaea Bay, and south and southeast Big Island coastal waters. Wind advisory until 6 pm HST Thursday elsewhere. Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST Thursday for rest of the coastal waters.

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23 May 2012 21:00:00 GMT - PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE AVIATION...FOSTER