Weather

8pm UPDATE: 10/17/14, Ana maintains strength, Maui County forecast details

October 17, 2014, 5:48 PM HST
* Updated October 18, 9:54 AM
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5-day forecast track 5 p.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

5-day forecast track 5 p.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley

***An updated hurricane forecast as of 5 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 17, 2014 is now posted at the following LINK.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just released their 8 p.m. update on Hurricane ANA. No changes have been made to the alerts that are posted. The intensity and track have not changed since the last update. The center of ANA is 245 miles S of Kahului, 255 miles S of Kaunakakai and 235 miles S of Lānaʻi City at 8 p.m. on Friday Oct. 17, 2014.

Summary of Alerts:

HURRICANE WARNING – All Hawaiian Offshore Waters

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TROPICAL STORM WARNING – All Hawaiian Offshore Waters / Big Island leeward coastal waters and Big Island southeast waters

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TROPICAL STORM WATCH – Statewide / All coastal waters

FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Big Island

Current Situation:

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Hurricane – Category 1

80 mph maximum sustained winds, gusting to 98 mph

Moving NW at 13 mph

Hurricane force winds extend outward 25 miles, tropical storm force winds extend 105 miles.

A decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday. If the track does not change ANA is expected to pass 150 miles southwest of the Big Island tonight and 175 miles southwest of the rest of the islands over the weekend. ANA could strengthen a bit more over the next 12 hours but is expected to slowly weaken late Saturday and Sunday.

Satellite imagery, 5 p.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Satellite imagery, 5 p.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Potential Impacts to Maui County:

Increased showers and periods of gusty winds are apparent for the windward side of Maui at 9:15pm.

Chance of tropical storm conditions is 40 – 50% for windward waters, 30 – 40% for leeward waters, 8% for Kahului, 11% for Lānaʻi and at 11% for Kaunakakai.

Timing: We expect to start seeing some effects, mainly surf and rain, later tonight and into Saturday morning. Conditions will gradually deteriorate. Tropical storm conditions are possible Saturday into Sunday. Maui County could be under the effects of ANA for about 24 hours.

Wind: For Haleakalā wind predictions are at 35 – 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph. Lower elevations of all islands are not expected to get winds above 39 mph at this time however there is still a small chance that could occur. Winds of 20 – 30 mph winds, gusting to 35 mph are possible Saturday afternoon and evening with the strongest winds on the southwest side of Maui County, particularly Lānaʻi and Molokaʻi.

Rain: Rainfall of 2 to 8 inches is possible across Maui County. Higher amounts are expected for mountainous terrain and along slopes where there is lift.

Surf: Ana will produce warning level surf of 10-15 ft along south facing shores Saturday and remain elevated through Sunday.

Seas: Ana will produce winds at 30 – 40 mph and seas up to 20 ft across leeward coastal waters Saturday through Sunday. An incoming northwest swell combined with strengthening winds will produce hazardous seas across the remainder of the coastal waters Saturday night and Sunday.

Satellite imagery, 5 p.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Satellite imagery, 5 p.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Keep in mind, this is a large system and not a single point – as the line in the track may lead you to believe – it’s becoming quite apparent on radar just how big this system is when compared to our land masses in the Hawaiian Islands. Slight deviations to the right could have significant negative impacts on the effects we see to our island weather. Slight deviations to the left could similarly have a positive effect on our weather. We will continue to closely monitor the system and the impending conditions as ANA continues to approach.

**This post was updated when the intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. was posted.**

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