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Malika Dudley’s Daily Forecast (10/23/14)

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley [1] / Email: [email protected]

Connect with Malika on Facebook [2], Twitter [3] and Instagram [4].

**A breakdown of expected conditions specific to Maui County is presented below in graphical form. High and low temperatures, swell, percent chance of clouds / rain and wind conditions are each depicted. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu.**

Last night's Napili Sunset / Image: Karanik Photography [5]

Last night’s Nāpili Sunset / Image: Karanik Photography

Alerts
There are no alerts posted for Maui County at this time. However, yesterday a record was set for rainfall [6] with 0.27 inches recorded at the Kahului airport. This breaks the old record of 0.25″ set in 1958.

Today
Winds are shifting and picking up out of the east but won’t be enough to relieve us of the muggy, sticky conditions we’ve been experiencing. Partly cloudy skies are expected today with lots of morning sunshine for leeward areas. Scattered windward and mauka showers will mainly fall at night with models showing less than 1/4″ of rain expected for windward spots on Maui.

Map of expected high temperatures in Maui County on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [7]

Map of expected high temperatures in Maui County on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

For the leeward sides, winds will still be light enough to allow for afternoon sea breezes to build bringing clouds and the possibility of isolated showers. Less than 1/10″ of rain is expected through leeward Maui. Models are also showing less than 1/10″ of rain for Lānaʻi and west Molokaʻi. High temperatures should fall in the range of 84° to 89° with higher elevations experiencing lower temperatures overall.

Sunset tonight at 5:56 p.m.
Sunrise tomorrow at 6:24 a.m.
UV index at 9 (“very high” exposure level)

Map of expected low temperatures in Maui County on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [8]

Map of expected low temperatures in Maui County on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Tonight
Cloud cover and scattered showers are likely for windward and mauka areas. Showers will increase as a batch of moisture, currently northeast of the Hawaiian islands pushes through the state overnight. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 73° to 78° and winds are expected with east winds up to 15 mph.

Looking Ahead
Muggy conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light trades forecasted for tomorrow should pick up a bit by the evening and into Friday. Ana will merge with a north Pacific low on Saturday which will push our trade wind producing high farther away. That means we expect light ESE winds over the weekend. Late each day, showers are likely to be more active than usual as two old cold fronts bring enhanced moisture over the state.

Expected wave heights on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [9]

Expected wave heights on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surf & Seas
Our current blend of north swells [10] (345-360°) is expected to hold through the morning and begin to fade later in the day. We expect surf heights in the knee to chest high range. For Maui, this swell is expected to show strongest for Hoʻokipa and exposures east of there. To the west, the swell won’t show as much due to shadowing by the island of Molokaʻi. Another north-northwest (320-360°) swell is on its heels expected to begin building through the day today, peaking Friday morning and fading through the weekend. A small / moderate reinforcing north swell should arrive late Saturday.

Map of expected winds in Maui County at 7am on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [11]

Map of expected winds in Maui County at 7am on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Our small south-southwest (200-190°) swell is lingering offering knee to possibly waist high waves at our best exposed shores. This swell is expected to start fading Friday dropping down to trace amounts by the weekend. Gales well southeast of New Zealand could bring larger surf by the middle of next week.

If ANA continues on its current forecast track the remnants of ANA are expected to merge with a storm to our north. If that happens we may see some swell generated from “ANA.” Otherwise, ANA is not looking to be a big swell producer.

All shores will be below advisory levels with surf heights. Only small surf is expected for east facing shores.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Map of expected winds in Maui County at 4pm on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [12]

Map of expected winds in Maui County at 4pm on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Almanac for Kahului Airport

Maximum Temperature for today:
Normal 86°
Record 93° / Set in 1984

Minimum Temperature for today:
Normal 69°
Record 61° / Set in 1975

 

 

Expected weather conditions in Maui County at 7am on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [13]

Expected weather conditions in Maui County at 7am on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Expected cloud cover in Maui County at 7am on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [14]

Expected cloud cover in Maui County at 7am on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Expected weather conditions in Maui County at 7pm on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [15]

Expected weather conditions in Maui County at 7pm on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Expected cloud cover in Maui County at 4pm on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS [16]

Expected cloud cover in Maui County at 4pm on Thursday October 23, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS