Malika Dudley’s Maui County Forecast (10/25/14)

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: [email protected]

**A breakdown of expected conditions specific to Maui County is presented below in graphical form. High and low temperatures, swell, percent chance of clouds / rain and wind conditions are each depicted. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu.**

Sunset at Tavares / Image: Krannichfeld Photography

Alerts
There are no alerts posted for Maui County at this time.

Today
We expect partly cloudy skies today with showers likely for windward and mauka spots. Leeward areas on Maui, Molokaʻi and Lānaʻi also have a slight chance of rainfall. That old front we’ve been talking about is expected late Saturday into early Sunday. As the front sags toward us we expect an uptick in showers, especially for the windward sides.

Map of expected high temperatures in Maui County on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

High temperatures should fall in the range of 84° to 89° with higher elevations experiencing lower temperatures overall.
Sunrise: 6:25 a.m.
Sunset: 5:54 p.m.
UV index at 8 (“very high” exposure level)

Tonight
Tonight we expect mostly cloudy skies with showers likely for windward and mauka areas. Trade winds are expected to hover around 15 mph and that could push rainfall into leeward spots from time to time. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 73° to 78°.

Map of expected overnight low temperatures in Maui County on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Looking Ahead
Light to moderate trades early in the week should allow local land and sea breeze conditions to develop. Confidence has grown in the scenario that breezy trade winds will make a return to the Aloha State by Halloween. For now, models are suggesting a Thursday/Friday timeline. A front is also expected to approach the state late in the week which will possibly bring us enhanced showers for the weekend.

Map of expected wave heights in Maui County on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surf & Seas
Our current north-northwest swell (320-360°) continues to fade through the weekend. A reinforcing north swell (350-10°) should arrive late Saturday bumping heights up a notch in the afternoon. Surf heights up to head high, for best breaks exposed to the swell, are expected as the swell builds in. The north boost is expected to hold until midday Sunday, then gradually drop through early next week.

Our small south-southwest (200-190°) swell is fading, starting the day out with ankle to possibly waist high waves but dropping down to trace amounts late tomorrow and into early next week. Another small boost is expected by mid-week offering knee to waist high surf. possibly bigger at the best exposures. For the west side, spots not catching the north will see heights up to possibly waist high at the best exposures, but more likely ankle to knee high as the SSW fades.

Wind conditions in Maui County at 7am on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

If ANA continues on its current forecast track the remnants of ANA are expected to merge with a storm to our north. If that happens we may see some swell generated from “ANA” late Wednesday into Thursday. Otherwise, ANA is not looking to be a big swell producer, maybe pushing heights up to about waist high.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Almanac for Kahului Airport
Maximum Temperature for today:
Normal 86°
Record 94° / Set in 1984

Minimum Temperature for today:
Normal 69°
Record 59° / Set in 1953

Wind conditions in Maui County at 4pm on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected weather conditions in Maui County at 7am on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected weather conditions in Maui County at 4pm on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover in Maui County at 7am on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover in Maui County at 4pm on Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of weather features for Saturday October 25, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS