West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 41 to 52. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 64 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Synopsis

A breezy trades will briefly weaken over the weekend, before increasing again early in the new week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, with clouds and brief showers favoring windward and mauka locations, mainly during the overnight through early morning hours, as areas of moisture move through periodically.

Discussion

No changes to the forecast this morning, however the Big Island summit winds are near Wind Advisory criteria so keeping a close eye on the winds there. Winds will hover near the advisory criteria into Saturday before trending downward.
High pressure far to the north-northwest of the state will drift to the east, with a ridge of high pressure remaining north of the region. This will maintain a trade wind pattern into the middle to end of next week.
Expect a return to a drier trade wind pattern to become established within the next 24 hours or so. Mid and upper level ridging will help to maintain that drier trade wind pattern into next week. Clouds and showers will be riding in on the trade wind flow, and remain focused over the typical windward sides of the islands. Those showers will be concentrated during the overnight and morning hours. Clouds and limited showers are also expected over the west slopes of the Big Island mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
The breezy trades will hold today, and then ease into the light to moderate range over the weekend as the ridge to the north weakens to a low passing far to the north. The southern extent of a mid- to upper- level trough associated with this system will pass near the islands to the north late today and into the weekend, which could support a slight increase in windward shower coverage during the overnight/early mornings. Rising upper heights along with a strengthening surface ridge to the north will support dry conditions prevailing early next week with breezy easterly trades returning.

Aviation

Moderate trade winds will remain in place today then will weaken gradually later this evening into the weekend. A band of low clouds and showers will continue bringing MVFR clouds and showers to the windward portions of the islands with improving conditions expected by mid morning. Trade wind showers could then increase again by this evening.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui and will likely be cancelled later this morning as showers are expected to decrease in coverage.

Marine

A series of surface highs will build and pass north of the state through early next week. Moderate to locally strong trades will persist today, then weaken slightly over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect until 6 PM HST today for the typical windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Trades will become fresh to locally strong again early next week.
Moderate surf along south facing shores will decline slightly today. A series of small, medium period swells will persist through the weekend keeping south facing shores from going flat. Small, short- period north swell will continue into into the weekend. A larger moderate medium period north swell reinforcement will arrive early Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will remain small but can expect a minor boost as winds pick up Monday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov