West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 87. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 66 to 74. North winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 70 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 58 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Synopsis

Expect light to moderate trades along with periodic showers across windward and mauka areas through Sunday. Trade winds will briefly strengthen next week before settling back down toward next weekend.

Discussion

Troughing to the north and west of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to put a dent in the subtropical ridge, keeping wind speeds within a rather modest light to moderate range across local waters this morning. Satellite loop shows an upper low west of the islands has moved far enough away to drag the associated veil of high clouds with it, resulting in clearer skies across the aloha state. Radar shows very little shower activity, with the bulk of what remains persisting within weak island plumes west of Maui County and the Big Island. Land breezes developed overnight across most land areas, clearing skies. Earlier cloud cover across leeward Big Island shores and slopes has also cleared.
Models show our rather dry, moderate trade wind pattern will continue through at least Sunday as ridging aloft contributes to steadily increasing stability. Trades will remain on the lighter side. Expect little change in the forecast for the next week. Breezy trades may briefly return early next week but quickly return to moderate strength in response to periodic rounds of troughing across the mid-latitude Pacific. An area of tropical moisture may be pulled north early next week, resulting in increased shower coverage Monday night. That said, upstream satellite imagery shows little or no evidence of this yet.

Aviation

Moderate trades will continue over the next couple of days. Clouds and isolated to scattered showers will typically favor windward and mountain areas, particularly through the overnight, and early morning hours. In this lighter wind pattern, sea breezes will also bring afternoon cloud build ups and isolated showers to select leeward interior areas that will then clear out overnight with land breezes. Overall, besides in brief isolated showers, VFR conditions should prevail across the island chain.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect and none are expected through the next 24 hours.

Marine

A series of cold fronts passing across the North Pacific will disrupt surface high pressure north of the islands. This will produce a weaker upstream pressure gradient and result in gentle trades through the day. High pressure will reestablish itself over the eastern Pacific early next week. Thus, trades will strengthen back to moderate to locally fresh magnitudes Monday. Trades may become locally strong and initiate Small Craft Advisories within eastern island bays and channels by next Tuesday. Trades will drop off a touch late next week as the high northeast of the state moves southeast and slackens the Central Pacific pressure gradient.
A minor bump in north shore surf will occur this morning as a small, short to medium period north swell (350-360 degree) fills in through noon. However, the arrival of a moderate size, medium period north swell (350 degree) Sunday night or early Monday may produce High Surf Advisory-level surf along north-facing shores. This swell will peak Monday evening and then slowly decline through mid week. A small, long period south swell (180 degree) reinforcement that arrived early Friday morning will hold near waist high south shore surf through the day. Surf along west-facing shores will remain somewhat elevated as these shores will continue to be influenced by both north and south swell wrap. East-facing shore wind wave chop will remain relatively small under this recent weak trade wind regime.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov