March 22, 2018 Weather Forecast
Photo Credit: Asa Ellison
**Click directly on the images below to make them larger. Charts include: Maui County high/low forecasted temperatures, projected winds, projected localized weather conditions and expected wave heights.**
Looking Ahead
Cloudy and breezy conditions continue across the state this morning due to strong high pressure to the north and an upper trough positioned several hundred miles west of Kauai near Midway. Water vapor imagery showed plenty of middle- to upper-level moisture being drawn northward east of this upper trough around a mid-level ridge, which supports the cloudy conditions in place. Although most of the shower coverage expected will continue to focus over the typical windward and mountain locations today, heavier showers over Kauai and Niihau are expected as a weak pulse of energy moves through aloft around the mid-level ridge. Latest radar showed a shield of moderate to heavy showers with a few storms embedded moving in from the west over Niihau and Kauai. Expect this trend to continue through the morning hours today.
Guidance remains in decent agreement through the short-term period (through Friday) and appears to be initializing well with the current trends and patterns. Consensus supports breezy trades holding as strong high pressure far north of the area shifts southeastward across the northeast Pacific. The aforementioned upper trough positioned to the west is forecast to begin shifting eastward toward the region today. This upper pattern will continue to support cloudy skies. Highest rainfall chances will remain over the western end of the state where the best source of deeper moisture and upper support exists. Elsewhere, showers will remain focused mostly over windward and mountain areas with a few passing showers leeward periodically.
Conditions will begin to evolve Friday into the upcoming weekend as a shortwave trough digs southeastward into the area bringing a threat for heavy rainfall and even a few storms statewide. Despite the model spread and inconsistencies between various solutions that have been shown in each cycle, most continue to depict low pressure developing along an approaching trough in the vicinity of the islands late Friday into Saturday with an abundance of deep moisture being drawn northward (2″ precipitable water values). A combination of falling upper heights, 0-6 km bulk shear (40-50 kt) profiles, lift, and deep tropical moisture will lead to a wet weekend with a few thunderstorms, especially late Friday through Saturday. The one limiting factor appears to be the instability (high shear/low instability event), which may end up being out of phase with where and when the heaviest activity ends up developing. The best chance for the heaviest rainfall and storms will remain over the western end of the state late Friday into Friday night, then shifting eastward to Maui County and the Big Island Saturday and Saturday night.
Sunday through early next week, improving conditions are expected as drier air fills in and the upper trough and surface low lift northeastward and away from the area. Guidance depicts light west winds, potentially giving way to overnight land breezes and afternoon sea breezes by early next week. Forecast confidence, however, remains low through this extended period provided the spread between solutions shown.
West Side
Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Light east northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Light east southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
South Side
Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Light and variable wind.
Friday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
North Shore
Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Windy, with an east wind 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Central Maui
Today: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. East northeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a light northeast wind becoming east northeast 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Upcountry
Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
East Maui
Today: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East southeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Lanai City
Today: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Kaunakakai
Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. East wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Image: NOAA
Image: NOAA
Image: NOAA
Image: NOAA
Image: NOAA
Image: NOAA
Image: NOAA
Image: NOAA
Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
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