Category 4 Lane Intensifies Again With 150 mph Winds, Rain Impacts Likely

By Wendy Osher

Update: 11 p.m. HST 8.20.18

The updated intensity forecast for Hurricane Lane has been “nudged upward” in the short term. According to the latest forecast, Lane remains a Category 4 Hurricane, but maximum sustained winds have increased to 150 mph with higher gusts (up from the 130 mph winds in the previous forecast). The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continues to forecast Slight weakening of the system over the next couple of days.

The CPHC notes that aircraft from NOAA and the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron have been flying through Lane at 8,000 to 10,000 feet, and are confirming that “Lane is a powerful hurricane” that has intensified since their last visit this morning. Forecasters say, “Lane has quite an impressive satellite signature this evening, with a solid ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding a warming eye.”

At 11 p.m. HST on Monday, Aug. 20, 2018, the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by aircraft 470 miles SSE of Hilo; 510 miles SE of Kailua-Kona; 450 miles SE of South Point; 565 miles SSE of Hāna; 590 miles SE of Kahului; 620 miles SE of Kaunakakai; 605 miles SE of Lānaʻi City; and 675 miles SE of Honolulu (near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 151.2 West).

Lane is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, with some slowing in forward speed. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Wednesday into Thursday. “A more decided turn toward the northwest is expected Thursday, with relatively slow-moving Lane now forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands,” according to the latest CPHC forecast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

Hazards affecting land include dangerous surf and heavy rainfall. Large swells generated by Lane will produce large and potentially damaging surf along exposed shorelines. Forecasters say excessive rainfall associated with Lane could affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and mud slides in some locations.

Long-range models place the system within 100 miles of parts of the island chain later this week.

According to the latest Forecast Discussion, “The uncertainty in the track forecast necessitates that interests in the Hawaiian Islands continue to closely monitor Lane the next couple of days. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track, as impacts from Lane extend well away from its center.”  (Click Here for Preparedness Tips)

According to the latest Hydrologic Outlook:

“The latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center indicates that the center of Hurricane Lane will pass south and southwest of the islands this week. As the impacts from a hurricane extend well away from the center, associated heavy rains are expected to impact the islands. Latest forecast models indicate that, regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Lane, an extremely moist and unstable air mass will move over the islands beginning late Wednesday, and will remain in place through the end of the week. This is expected to result in very heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flash flooding. The details on the timing and location of the heavy rain are still uncertain.”

Saffir-Simpson Scale

Tropical Storm – winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 – winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 – winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 – winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt)
Category 4 – winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt)
Category 5 – winds 157 mph and up (137+ kt)

Hurricane Lane, 5-day forecast track., 11 p.m. 8.20.18. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Hurricane Lane satellite imagery., 11 p.m. 8.20.18. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Hurricane Lane satellite imagery., 11 p.m. 8.20.18. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Hurricane Lane, tropical storm force (39 mph+) wind probabilities. 11 p.m. 8.20.18. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Hurricane Lane, hurricane force (74 mph+) wind probabilities. 11 p.m. 8.20.18. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Hurricane Lane, earliest reasonable arrival times of tropical storm force winds. PC: 11 p.m. 8.20.18 NOAA/CPHC

Hurricane Lane, most likely arrival times of tropical storm force winds. PC: 11 p.m. 8.20.18 NOAA/CPHC