Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the evening.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 76. North northeast wind 5 to 13 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. East northeast wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to locally breezy trades in place through Friday, with the trades easing into the light to moderate range Saturday through Monday as a front approaches and stalls well northwest of the islands. The remnants of an old front will bring an increase in shower coverage and intensity to Kauai and Oahu later this morning through Wednesday, with rain chances expected to be the highest over windward areas, particularly on Kauai. A more typical trade wind pattern will return Wednesday night and hold through early next week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas and a few showers reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1027 mb high is centered around 950 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows quite a bit of high cloud moving overhead, while the leading edge of a roughly 100 mile wide cloud band (the remnants of an old front) are evident around 50 miles north of Kauai and Oahu. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward sections of Kauai and over the coastal waters to the east and northeast of Oahu. Very little shower activity is noted elsewhere at the moment. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances associated with the old frontal remnants moving through during the next couple days.
High pressure will build eastward well to the north of the islands during the next few days, while a weak disturbance slides westward well to the south of the state. This will keep moderate to locally breezy trades in place through Friday. A front is expected to approach from the northwest Friday night and Saturday, then stall out several hundred miles northwest of the islands Sunday through early next week. As a result, we should see the trades ease into the light to moderate range Friday night and Saturday, and hold at similar levels Sunday into early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, the old frontal remnants are expected to bring an increase in showers particularly to windward sections of Kauai and Oahu beginning later this morning, with fairly wet trade wind weather then holding through Wednesday, particularly for Kauai. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but a few showers will also reach leeward communities. Drier trade wind weather will prevail over Maui County and the Big Island, with mainly windward showers.
A disturbance aloft will move southward over or just north of the state Wednesday night and Thursday, then meander in the vicinity of the islands through early next week. Overall, this should bring an increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity Thursday through early next week. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, but the elevated inversions will likely send a few more showers into leeward areas as well. Additionally, a thunderstorm or two could develop over the Big Island Thursday afternoon.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will continue to bring moderate east northeast trades across the islands for the remainder of the day. Isolated to scattered showers will be mainly limited to windward locations with brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility possible. Expect VFR conditions and partly cloudy skies elsewhere.
Enhanced low level moisture approaching from the north will bring increased cloud cover and a chance of showers for Kauai and Oahu by this afternoon.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds through the week. Showers will increase over the northern waters today and tonight. Winds will reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds today around the windier waters near Maui and the Big Island. Trade winds may decrease over the weekend as a front develops well northwest of the state.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Wednesday, then slowly rise, approaching High Surf Advisory levels over the weekend. A short-period north swell will produce small surf along north facing shores today and diminish tonight and Wednesday. Surf along north facing shores will be minimal through the rest of the week, but a small northwest swell is possible early next week. Trade winds upstream of the islands will produce only small and choppy surf along east facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov