Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. North northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 14 to 19 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a north wind 7 to 12 mph becoming east 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Upcountry

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Light northeast wind becoming east 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Wednesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. East wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming east northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An area of high pressure will remain north of the area through the remainder of the week and on through the weekend. Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist throughout the forecast period. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas with the trade winds sufficiently strong enough to blow some brief passing showers over to select leeward areas at times.

Discussion

The latest satellite imagery and model analysis indicates a pocket of relatively deep saturation extending up to around 9-10kft advancing westward, its southern periphery just grazing Kauai. The more easterly fetch acquired by breezy trade winds this afternoon and evening will help steer the bulk of the moisture north of the islands through tonight, although a few moderate showers will remain possible over and in the vicinity of the Garden Isle through this morning. Shallower moisture and more stable conditions will favor a more typical variety of trade wind showers elsewhere with scattered shower coverage focused mainly over windward and mauka areas.
The slowly evolving large scale pattern will offer little change for the remainder of the week. Trades will demonstrate minor fluctuations while very broad weakly cyclonic flow aloft will provide an added boost to inversion heights during periods of greater shower activity. The greatest opportunity for more robust showers will be Wednesday into Thursday when the guidance indicates a notable sharpening of the upper trough axis directly overhead. Forecast soundings during this period feature pockets of saturation up to 9-10kft which supports the official forecast for likely pops windward and isolated to scattered coverage leeward. Breezy trades will then favor a typical trade wind weather pattern for the remainder of the forecast period with showers focused over windward areas, especially overnight and in the early morning.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds across the region for the next few days. A narrow upper level trough and passing low level disturbances will keep enhanced showers in the island forecast. Periods of showers will favor windward and mountain areas with higher coverage in the overnight to early morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail for most leeward airfields with brief periods of MVFR conditions possible over windward areas.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for Tempo Mountain Obscurations over north and east sections of Kauai and Oahu. Tango will likely be cancelled later this morning as low cloud ceilings improve.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for Tempo Moderate Turbulence below 080 south through west of all island mountains. Tango will remain in effect for at least the next few days.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to locally strong trades through tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect through 6 AM Wednesday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island. The trades are expected to briefly drop below SCA levels Wednesday and Wednesday night as a weak surface trough approaches and moves through the islands. Solid SCA conditions should then return to the typically windy waters on Thursday as the trades ramp back up, with SCA level winds expanding to additional marine zones Friday through the weekend.
Surf along south facing shorelines will remain well below the summertime average through Thursday. South shore surf will trend up Friday through the weekend as a new south swell fills in, with surf heights nearing the summertime average over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will maintain rough and choppy surf along east facing shores during the next 7 days. Trade wind swell will likely increase to near the summertime average Wednesday through Friday, then rise to slightly above normal levels over the weekend. Surf along north facing shores will remain mostly flat during the next 7 days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov