Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through Saturday, with winds expected to become fairly light Sunday through the middle of next week. While the trade winds are blowing, low clouds and showers will favor windward areas, especially during nights and mornings. With the lighter winds, some afternoon clouds, and a few showers, are expected over leeward areas.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1400 miles north-northeast of Honolulu and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions over windward areas, with clear to partly cloudy skies in leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a few showers spilling leeward from time to time. Main short term concerns revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next few days.
High pressure north-northeast of the state will maintain moderate to breezy trade winds through Saturday, although a slow and gradual decline in trade wind speeds is expected as we head into the weekend. A surface trough will develop east of the islands on Saturday, then track slowly westward to the north of the islands Sunday through the middle of next week. This is expected to ease the trade winds to light levels Sunday through Wednesday, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes common statewide.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather will prevail through Saturday, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas, primarily at night and during the early morning hours. A convective pattern appears to set up Sunday through the middle of next week. During this time, expect a few showers to affect windward coasts overnight and during the early morning hours, while the afternoon and evening hours will favor showers developing over interior and leeward sections of the islands.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the 24-hr forecast period, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain locations. Brief periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS are possible in and around passing showers, especially overnight through the early morning hours. AIRMET Tango will remain in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain (likely dropped on Friday as the trades ease slightly).

Marine

Trade winds will remain moderate to locally breezy through the early part of the weekend as high pressure remains far north of the state. So, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, at least through tonight, for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds are expected to gradually ease beginning Friday as surface and upper-level troughs approach from the east.
Background south swells will keep south shore surf from going flat over the next few days. A slightly larger south swell over the weekend may boost surf by a foot or two. East shore surf will likely drop somewhat the next several days as the overall trade wind flow weakens. No other significant swells are expected through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Leeward, Oahu South Shore, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Molokai Leeward, Maui Leeward West, Maui Central Valley, Leeward Haleakala, Kona, South Big Island, Kohala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov