Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 72. North winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 63. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trades will trend slightly lighter today before a gradual strengthening trend sets in from Friday through Saturday, as a strong surface high sets up shop north of the islands. Clouds and showers will favor the typical windward areas into the weekend. A wet trade wind pattern is expected early next week aided by an upper level low west and south of the islands.

Discussion

The trade winds has trended down to light to moderate strength, and will hold through today. The trades will then firm up slightly to mainly moderate speed tonight and hold through Friday night. The trades then ramps up big time to moderate to strong area-wide Saturday and hold through early next week. This comes about as a strong 1040 millibar surface high sets up shop far north of the islands Saturday, and stays there north of the islands through Tuesday.
Currently, the clouds and heavy showers have cleared Kauai. The layered clouds have nudged east of the Big Island. We now have a clear view of the low clouds situation. Satellite imagery shows just a scant amount, here and there, around the main Hawaiian Islands. If this situation holds, will lower the chances of showers down to isolated for the windward and mountain areas this morning, and this include windward Big Island.
Hiding beneath the dense layered clouds east of the Big Island is a east to west oriented band of scattered showers. One of the two weather radars on the Big Island is already detecting a few showers some 120 miles east of Cape Kumukahi. Windward Big Island can expect increasing showers later this morning, and through tonight. These clouds and showers will be spreading westward with the trades to the remaining islands through tonight and Friday. The upper trough over Kauai is on its way southeastward, reaching the Big Island Friday before dissipating. This trough may aid in some daytime convection over the Big island Friday.
The weather picture gets more interesting over the rest of the weekend through early next week. A surface low is forecast to drop south and stalls 950 miles northwest of Kauai Saturday evening. An upper level low, initially accompanying the surface low, continues southeastward finally stalling just to the south of the islands Tuesday afternoon. Furthermore, a front is forecast to move south and landing over the islands Tuesday. The combination of these features will result in a period of windy and wet trades where locally heavy showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Accompanying the upper low will be a thunderstorm or two, favoring the offshore waters for now, but may venture into the adjacent coastal waters. The ECMWF and GFS hold similar views, although the GFS is wetter.

Aviation

Moderate east to southeast winds will continue through the second half of the week as a front passes far to the north. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain locations overnight through the morning periods – that could lead to brief periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. Although some interior cloud development will be possible through the afternoon period where sea breezes develop, rainfall will remain limited.
AIRMET TANGO for moderate turbulence between 28000 and 48000 feet remains in effect and will likely continue through the day today over the eastern end of the state.

Marine

A high pressure system northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to weaken and drift east as another cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Trade wind speeds are decreasing in response to this pressure pattern change. Expect light to moderate E winds today allowing local scale land and sea breezes over terrain sheltered areas favoring SW through NW sections of all islands. Longer range guidance continues to show high pressure building into the north Central Pacific basin on Saturday, heralding a return to moderate to breezy trade wind weather lasting into the first half of next week. Upper level disturbances aloft and a shallow cold front moving in from the north early next week will keep unsettled weather conditions in the forecast on Monday and Tuesday.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for rough seas was cancelled this morning as winds and seas are decreasing below advisory thresholds.
The current N swell will slowly decline today, briefly decreasing surf heights along N and W facing shores. Two overlapping NW swells, primarily from a 310 direction, will increase surf heights along N and W shores from Friday through Sunday. These surf heights may approach High Surf Advisory levels this weekend and then decline early next week. E facing shores will see a lowering trend in surf heights as wind speeds diminish and the N swell energy fades. However, increasing trade winds this weekend will increase surf heights along E facing shores into early next week. S facing shores will remain flat through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov