Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 61 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 80. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 62. North winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 82. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 61. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 53 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weakening cold front moving through Maui County and the Big Island will bring a few showers to mainly windward areas today and tonight, while cooler and dry conditions prevail over Kauai and Oahu. Trade winds will fill in behind the front and hold in place into Wednesday, although they will likely become light over Kauai and Oahu Wednesday afternoon. Fairly dry conditions are expected statewide Wednesday through the weekend, with a few windward showers expected each night, particularly over the eastern islands, and a few showers developing over the island interiors each afternoon.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening cold front is moving through Molokai, while a 1020 mb high is centered around 450 miles west of Kauai. Light and variable winds are in place in advance of the front, while moderate to locally breezy winds prevail in its wake. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, while radar imagery shows very little shower activity statewide. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and wind trends during the next couple days.
The cold front will continue to move southeastward and through Maui County today, before dissipating near the Big Island tonight. Moderate to locally breezy north to northeast winds are expected to fill in behind the front as it progresses down the island chain, with winds shifting to a more typical east- northeasterly trade wind direction tonight. The trades will hold at moderate levels over the eastern islands Wednesday, but will become light over Kauai and Oahu as a ridge nears these islands from the north. The ridge will settle southward and over the western end of the state on Thursday, then hold nearly stationary through the end of the work week. This will keep winds light and variable over the western islands where land and sea breezes will prevail, while the eastern end of the state holds in a light to locally moderate trade wind regime. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday, then stall out and dissipate just northwest of Kauai on Sunday. The gradient will weaken as a result, with land and sea breezes prevailing statewide over the weekend and into early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, dry conditions are expected to prevail over Kauai and Oahu today and tonight, while a few showers affect mainly windward areas across the eastern end of the state. With the returning trades and dewpoints lowering into the upper 50s behind the front, it will feel cooler across the islands as well. Showers will continue to affect windward sections of the eastern islands Wednesday through Friday where the trades attempt to hold on, while lighter winds over Kauai and Oahu will allow a few showers to develop over the island interiors each afternoon, with mainly dry nights and mornings. The land and sea breeze pattern is expected to spread to the entire state Saturday through early next week, with a few showers possible over the island interiors each afternoon and mainly dry conditions prevail during nights and mornings.

Aviation

As a weakening cold front settles over Maui County and dissipates today, light southwest flow will transition to trades from northwest to southeast. As a result, clouds and showers will become increasingly focused over windward sections of Maui and Molokai this morning into this afternoon. VFR is expected to prevail throughout this time.
AIRMET Tango for tempo mod turbulence /FL250 TO FL350/ was issued for Kauai through Maui as an upper trough passes north of the area.
AIRMET Tango for lee turbulence may be needed by this evening and tonight as a period of locally breezy trades develops over Molokai through Big Island.

Marine

Fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds will continue to fill in as a diminishing cold front advances down the island chain today. The wind direction will shift out of the east statewide tonight into Wednesday, before weakening and shifting out of the east-southeast Wednesday night through the second half of the week as a couple of fronts pass to the north. Light and variable winds will likely be the result over the Kauai and Oahu waters through the latter half of the week and upcoming weekend.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will remain above average through the week as overlapping west-northwest swells arrive and move through in response to the ongoing active pattern across the northern Pacific. The next swell in the series is filling in early this morning and should peak today before gradually lowering through midweek. Surf will respond and reach the extra-large category today – which supports the High Surf Warning and Small Craft Advisory (for seas) continuing into Wednesday. The offshore buoys to the northwest reflect this new source with the peak energy centered around the 13-14 second band and swell heights coming in higher than predicted. As this source slowly eases late Wednesday, the next pulse is forecast to arrive Thursday, which will drive the surf back toward warning levels Thursday through Friday. A gradual downward trend is then expected over the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov