Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 67. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. North winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 52 to 64. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Dry and stable conditions with minimal shower activity can be expected today with sea breezes developing in most areas. The trades will return from east to west across the islands tonight and Saturday, then increase to moderate and breezy levels Saturday night through early next week. Trade wind showers will increase as the trades return, with a more showery trade wind pattern expected Saturday night through early Tuesday, allowing more showers to reach leeward locales. The trades will ease and shower coverage will diminish during the middle to latter part of next week as a new front stalls out northwest of the island chain.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a cold front is located around 550 miles west-northwest of Kauai, with a 1034 mb high centered around 1850 miles northeast of Honolulu. Meanwhile, a ridge axis extends southwest from the high to a position over or near the Garden Isle. These features are producing light and variable winds over the western islands, with light to moderate east- southeasterly winds over the eastern end of the state early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across the state, with radar imagery showing a few showers over the coastal waters south of Kauai and southeast of the Big Island, and very little if any shower activity elsewhere. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next few days.
A cold front will approach from the northwest today, then stall out and weaken into a trough late tonight and Saturday a few hundred miles northwest of Kauai. As a result, the trades will continue to ease this morning over the eastern islands, with sea breezes expected statewide this afternoon. The trades will begin to slowly filter back into the state from east to west tonight and Saturday, with land and sea breezes developing in the more sheltered areas over the western end of the state, while moderate trades prevail over the eastern islands. The trough to the north of the islands will shift westward Saturday night and Sunday before dissipating early next week. This will bring a period of moderate to breezy trade winds Sunday through Monday. A new front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday, then stall out a few hundred miles northwest of the state Wednesday and Thursday. This will ease the trade winds back into the light to moderate range, with localized land and sea breezes possible in the more sheltered areas.
As for the remaining weather details, very dry and stable conditions are expected today, with a few showers possible mainly over the eastern end of the state. The airmass will moisten up from east to west across the island chain tonight and Saturday as the trades begin to return, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly over the eastern end of the state. A more typical and showery trade wind regime is expected Saturday night through early Tuesday, with a few more showers reaching leeward areas due to the stronger trades. Trade wind shower coverage should trend down during the middle to latter part of next week, as the trade winds ease and mid-level ridging builds over the islands.

Aviation

With a nearby surface ridge in place, winds will be light through the day and tonight, though east winds will be light to moderate over windward Big Island. There will be daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes in many areas. Most cloudiness will develop over interior and mauka sections during the afternoon hours, though any rainfall will be spotty. Clouds will tend to clear out in the evening and overnight hours. VFR will predominate.
No AIRMETs are expected through today.

Marine

A surface ridge laying very near Kauai is currently supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds…stronger northeast winds through the Alenuihaha Channel and surrounding Big Island windward waters. An approaching front will slow and stall as it dissipates northwest of Kauai today. This will weaken areawide winds, most notably today's light southeast to south breezes over Kauai and Oahu's waters. High pressure passing north of the islands this weekend will strengthen ridging while moving it north and tightening the pressure gradient back across the islands. This will result in moderate to locally fresh trades that will likely persist into Monday. Strengthened trades may reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) speeds within the windier zones around Maui and Big Island this weekend. The pressure gradient back toward northeast high pressure will remain tight enough to maintain at least moderate trades through the majority of next week with only subtle weakening through the middle of next week. Combined seas may reach SCA heights of 10 feet across some windward zones through Saturday with the arrival of a couple of moderate size northwest swells.
A moderate size, medium period west northwest swell will be arriving this morning and peaking later today. This swell has been observed at the northwest offshore buoys overnight and is timed to fill in through Maui by the mid-afternoon hours. This swell will pick up surf heights to High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels today. Thus, a HSA is in effect for exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. After a brief lull overnight into Saturday morning, a reinforcing similar size northwest swell will come in on its heels Saturday. This will keep the HSA in effect through the day Saturday. The next moderate size, medium period northwest swell is expected to arrive around Tuesday or Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will receive a couple of small late week bumps from the arrival of very small, medium period southerly swells. Additionally, a slight increase in short period wind waves from the east northeast are also expected to maintain an elevated weekend east chop.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov