Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 71. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 85. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands will maintain a breezy trade wind pattern with passing showers focused over windward and mauka areas through the remainder of the week. Heading into the weekend, and increase in rainfall is likely with additional moisture and a more unstable airmass overhead.

Discussion

As expected, very little change in the forecast through the day Friday. Beyond that, some modifications have been made to account for the latest model consensus for the weekend weather.
Thunderstorms continue to be found along a trough about 650 miles northwest of Kauai. And high pressure to the northeast of the islands continues to bring moderate to locally breezy trade winds to the region. Passing showers being carried in on the trade wind flow continue to be focused over windward and mauka areas.
The surface trough to the northeast has an upper level trough associated with it, and this feature will bear watching as it tracks to the east. It is expected to reach the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend, where it will likely help to enhance shower activity. Remnant moisture from the surface feature is expected to move in from the north over the islands, and the upper level feature will bring in cold upper level temperatures Saturday night. Based on climatological values, the colder 500 and 700 mb temperatures and the increased moisture will lead to enhanced showers, and there is some support for thunderstorms. Model thunderstorm probability remains low, so at this time, will continue to monitor the situation to see what the model trends are. Have boosted the QPF values in the forecast for Friday night through Sunday in keeping with the enhanced shower activity expected with the upper trough.
Some high clouds are starting to make their way over the islands, and more are expected as the week wears on with the system to the west moving closer to the islands. This will likely lead to more and thicker high clouds during the second half of the week.

Aviation

Locally breezy trades will focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka slopes through the forecast period. VFR will prevail over the smaller islands with nothing more than very brief MVFR possible within any heavier showers. For Windward Big Island, the land breeze brought enough clearing of earlier widespread clouds and showers to allow AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration to expire, however pockets of showers and MVFR continue over some downslope areas.
Conditions remain borderline for moderate lee turbulence. Will continue to monitor and update AIRMET TANGO if necessary.

Marine

Surface high pressure located far northeast of the state is producing a tight enough pressure gradient back toward the islands to maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds. These wind magnitudes will persist into the weekend with a slight strengthening of trades across more exposed windward waters and western channels Thursday through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect through Thursday night for the typically windier waters surrounding Maui County and south of Big Island.
Moderate to fresh trades over and upstream of the islands the past several days has generated a medium period east swell along with choppy wind generated, shorter period waves. This fetch will be gradually fading through the second half of the week that will have slightly elevated surf along many eastern exposures lowering the next couple of days. A series of very small northwest swells moving around the islands will keep north shore surf from going completely flat this week. The recent small bump in south swell will continue its slow decline today. The next round of slightly higher south swell is expected to arrive this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov