Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 82 to 88. Northwest winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 88. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 56 to 68. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 75 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 60 to 70. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 74 to 84. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Stable and relatively dry atmospheric conditions persist across the Hawaiian Islands. Breezy trades will continue to transport some low clouds and brief, isolated showers mainly over windward and mauka sections this week. The winds are forecast to weaken and shift out of the southeast later this weekend. This may allow a weather pattern with local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to develop from Sunday into early next week.

Discussion

A 1032 mb surface high is centered near 36N 139W, or more than 1400 miles northeast of Hilo. The tight pressure gradient southwest of this feature is maintaining breezy trade winds across the Aloha State early this morning. Aloft, a mid-level ridge is keeping the atmosphere relatively stable over the region. In addition, the lowest levels of the atmosphere have near. to slightly below normal moisture values. The latest satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show a narrow band of low clouds and showers along some windward areas. This band will continue moving westward, with drier conditions likely developing once it passes west of the islands later this morning. Conditions appear to be generally dry over most leeward areas of the state,
The forecast guidance shows the surface high northeast of the state will continue to maintain locally breezy trade winds through late Friday. The mid-level ridge is also expected to remain established over the area, along with near, to slightly below normal low-level moisture. Therefore, the forecast looks relatively unchanged from later today and tonight into the start of the weekend. Windward and mauka areas will continue to have some low clouds and brief, isolated showers. The upslope sections of the leeward Big Island will have clouds and a chance of showers each afternoon and evening, while most leeward areas on the smaller islands will be mostly clear and dry.
By Saturday, the forecast guidance continues to show a weak cold front moving down toward the islands from the north-northwest, while the surface high that is now far northeast of here moves south and weakens. This will cause the trade winds to ease and shift out of the east-southeast or southeast from late Saturday through Sunday. This lighter wind regime will likely persist into early next week once it becomes established. As a result, an alternating local afternoon sea breeze / nighttime land breeze weather pattern is expected to develop. This weaker wind regime will result in noticeably warmer afternoon temperatures. At the same time, the mid-level ridge in the vicinity of the islands will likely flatten as a mid-level trough propagates toward the area from the west-northwest. This will cause the atmosphere to become somewhat less stable. However, low- and mid-level moisture is not expected to increase substantially. Therefore, cloud cover and only isolated showers are expected to develop over leeward and interior sections of the islands during the afternoon hours due to the sea breezes. Expect clearing skies over most areas each night as the land breezes become established.

Aviation

High pressure far northeast of the state is expected to track slowly southward over the next few days. This will serve to keep increasingly breezy, mostly dry, trade wind conditions in place through the remainder of the work week. Occasional bands of weak showers off the Pacific will impact mainly east and northeast facing slopes and coasts. A well defined trade wind inversion around 06 kft will inhibit most local shower development. Brief MVFR CIG or VIS are to be expected in passing showers; otherwise VFR conditions will prevail all areas.
AIRMET Tango for moderate low level mechanical turbulence to the lee of higher terrain remains in effect. Conditions are expected to persist for the next several days.

Marine

Surface high pressure far northeast of the area will continue to produce moderate to locally strong trade winds over the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island, as well as the Windward and Leeward Maui County waters and the Kaiwi Channel through tonight. Starting Thursday morning, the SCA has been scaled back to only include the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Thursday night. This SCA will likely need to be extended through Friday. Trades are expected to weaken slightly over the weekend as the high weakens.
Choppy surf will dominate east facing shores this week with seasonally normal heights, followed by a slight downward trend over the weekend as trade winds weaken. A couple of small medium period northwest swells will move through the island chain today through the rest of the week, keeping below seasonally normal heights along north and west facing shores. Surf along south facing shores will remain small today and into tomorrow. A couple of small, long-period south swells may give south facing shores a small boost late Thursday and into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov