Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 67. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. East winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 87. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 83 to 88. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 66. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 84. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds will continue today from a high pressure ridge north of the state. Expect land and sea breezes to develop on Monday as the ridge north of the islands weakens. A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest on Tuesday produces southerly winds over Kauai and Oahu, this front will stall near Kauai on Wednesday and produce a period of unstable showers for the western islands. Elsewhere land and sea breezes will continue through Thursday for the eastern half of the state with island interior clouds and a few showers favoring the afternoon to early evening. Trade winds begin to return to the eastern half of the state by late Friday spreading to the western islands on Saturday.

Discussion

The satellite and radar imagery shows bands of clouds and showers drifting westward into the windward and mountain areas of each island this morning. A weakening cold front continues to approach the islands from the northwest. An upper level subtropical jet stream will produce high level cirrus clouds over the next few days, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
Trade winds speeds remain in the moderate to locally breezy range today. Expect brief periods of showers through the day mainly over windward and mountain areas.
The local weather pattern shifts gears later tonight as the high pressure ridge north of the islands weakens and the cold front approaches the state from the northwest. Winds will begin to veer more from the southeast direction and land and sea breezes will develop over each island due to lee wind shadowing effects from the Big Island in this wind pattern. Two weakening cold fronts will move into the region from the northwest producing unstable southerly winds over the western islands of Kauai and Oahu through much of the week. The latest weather model guidance shows this frontal boundary stalling out just west of Kauai on Wednesday. Expect increasing showers mainly over Kauai and Niihau from Tuesday through Thursday with Oahu seeing less of a rainfall enhancement. A few thunderstorms were introduced around Kauai on Wednesday.
The high pressure ridge begins to build back in over the region on Friday with drier and more stable trade winds expected over the eastern half of the state. These trade winds will spread more stable conditions westward and push the stalled frontal cloud band northwestward away from the islands. Expect a hybrid light to moderate trade wind and land sea breeze weather pattern into next Sunday.
Rainfall impacts are currently not expected to be severe over Kauai County as the frontal cloud band with the most unstable moisture and dynamic forcing stalling just west of Kauai. However, if this frontal boundary shifts further eastward, the front may stall over Kauai, and rainfall impacts could become worthy of a Flood Watch on Wednesday. For now, we are anticipating more of a Flood Advisory scenario as the more likely outcome for this event. Stay tuned for forecast updates as this weather story may yet evolve over time.

Aviation

Moderate trades will prevail in most areas today, although sea breezes will develop in some of the more sheltered areas this afternoon. The trades will ease a bit tonight, allowing land breezes to develop in most leeward areas, and possibly even some windward areas over the western end of the state. Clouds and showers will favor windward terrain through the early morning hours, then transition over to leeward mauka areas this afternoon. Predominantly VFR conditions should prevail at most TAF sites.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and immediately downwind of the terrain of Maui County and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled later this morning.

Marine

Locally strong trade winds will likely continue today. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this afternoon for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. The forecast continues to show the background flow will weaken and swing around out of the east-southeast or southeast starting tonight, and continuing through Tuesday. A front moving toward the region from the northwest will likely cause the winds to eventually swing around from a more southerly direction by mid-week. The latest model guidance continues to suggest the south winds may become gusty near Kauai and Niihau on Wednesday.
The current choppy, moderate surf along east facing shores is expected to gradually lower starting tonight due to the winds in the vicinity of the islands weakening, and switching around from the southeast. An upstream fetch of east winds will likely keep small background surf along exposed east facing shores for most of the new week.
A small, medium-period south swell arriving later today may cause a slight increase above background surf heights along south facing shores through Monday. A larger, medium-period south swell filling in on Tuesday will likely produce a noticeable increase in surf heights along south facing shores. This swell is expected to peak on Wednesday. Note that this is also the same the southerly winds may be strengthening, so there is a chance the surf may be choppy, especially along south facing shores of the western islands around mid-meek. This south swell will gradually lower from late Thursday through Friday.
The wave model guidance continues to show only minuscule, short- period northwest swell energy through early Wednesday. Therefore, expect nearly flat conditions along most north and west facing shorelines for the next few days. There continue to be uncertainties in the wave model output, but the latest trends indicate a small, medium-period north swell may arrive Wednesday night. Assuming this swell does show up, it will gradually lower from Thursday night through Friday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov