Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 72 to 81. East winds around 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 56 to 66. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate easterly trade winds will continue through Thursday with clouds and light showers favoring windward and mountain locations. Trade wind speeds will decrease slightly from Friday through Sunday, allowing land and sea breezes to develop over western and leeward sections of each island. A stable and dry atmosphere will limit shower coverage and amounts lasting into early next week.

Discussion

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep stable moderate trade wind weather in the forecast through Thursday. Model cross sections continue to show trade wind subsidence inversion heights in the 5,000 to 7,000 foot range, limiting vertical cloud development and shower coverage. Brief passing showers may develop in the overnight to early morning hours over windward and mountain areas in this pattern. Most leeward areas will remain dry.
The ridge north of the islands will weaken slightly from Friday into the weekend. Local scale land and sea breezes will develop over western and leeward slopes of each island this weekend as large scale trade wind speeds decrease in strength. Clouds will build over island mountain and interior sections each day from late morning to afternoon with isolated showers possible. A fairly stable temperature inversion aloft will tend to limit shower coverage and amounts in this hybrid trade wind and sea breeze weather regime.

Aviation

Moderate easterly trade winds will continue through tomorrow as high pressure remains in place north of the island chain. Stable air overhead will allow VFR flight conditions to prevail at most locations, though latest satellite imagery and surface observations early this morning show isolated areas of low clouds along windward sections of the islands. Although there are currently no AIRMETs in effect, tempo mountain obscuration could become an issue for windward Kauai and Oahu later this morning. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings and visibility will continue to be isolated in nature throughout the forecast period and favor north through east facing sections of the islands. Additionally, leeward clouds are forecast to increase once again this afternoon across western sections of the Big Island before clearing late tonight.
Looking ahead, trade winds will gradually weaken by Friday, which could allow for land and sea breezes to set up across the island chain.

Marine

High pressure far northeast of the state will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the coastal waters through Thursday. The Small Craft Advisory for typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been cancelled as winds have eased below criteria level. Trade winds are expected to ease Friday into the weekend as the ridge weakens slightly moves closer to the state.
The current south swell appears to have peaked at NDBC offshore buoy 51002, however energy levels still remain elevated. The wrap from this long period south swell is providing a boost in surf heights along exposed west facing shores. A High Surf Warning remains in effect until noon today for all south facing shores. Surf heights are expected to slowly subside to High Surf Advisory criteria later today through early tomorrow morning, then continue to subside into the weekend. A smaller, long period south swell is expected to fill in over the weekend, keeping surf near seasonal averages.
Small surf along north facing shores will continue to dwindle as the last remaining fragments of the current northwest swell moves out. A small, medium period north swell may begin to fill in late tomorrow night, providing a small boost in surf heights Friday into the weekend. Another small, slightly longer period northwest swell may overlap over the weekend providing an additional small boost to north and west facing shores. Surf along east facing shores will remain smaller than average due to the lack of strong trade winds. The one exception will be for areas exposed to the south swell.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until noon HST today for south facing shores of all Hawaiian Islands.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Thursday for south facing shores of all Hawaiian Islands.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov