Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 90. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 68. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will weaken through Saturday, remain on the lighter side through the weekend, then increase again early next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas during nights and mornings, but the lighter winds will allow sea breezes to drive cloud and shower formation over leeward and interior areas in the afternoons. An increase in moisture tonight into Saturday is expected to fuel increased shower coverage, especially windward.

Discussion

An area of showery low clouds is embedded within moderate trade flow and continues to spread showers across windward and mauka areas this morning. Trade winds will gradually diminish through Saturday, then slowly strengthen Sunday into next week. While diminished, trade winds will remain strong enough this weekend to bring showers to windward areas, especially during nights and mornings. However, winds will also be sufficiently light to allow land and sea breezes over leeward areas. Land breezes will ensure mostly clear skies leeward during nights and mornings, while sea breezes will support the development of clouds and showers over leeward and interior areas during afternoons and evenings. Strengthening trades are expected early next week, delivering brief passing showers to windward areas.
An increase in low-level moisture and the development of a weak upper trough north of Kauai through Saturday will increase windward shower coverage, and may allow sea breeze showers to drop briefly heavy rainfall. Otherwise, our airmass will be relatively stable and significant rainfall accumulation is not expected. Models show a significant northward surge of tropical moisture around Tuesday, potentially clipping the Big Island. Our current forecast does not anticipate this somewhat dubious scenario, which would bring rainfall to the islands, but we will continue to monitor for potential changes to the forecast.

Aviation

Early this morning, deeper low level moisture being advected towards the islands from the east has enhanced windward shower activity and cloud coverage. Periodic MVFR ceilings and visibilities within showers have been observed, and will continue to be possible through the rest of the morning. AIRMET Sierra has been issued for tempo mountain obscuration for north through east sections of all main Hawaiian Islands and will likely remain in effect through midday.
Light to locally moderate trade winds will continue to gradually weaken today through Saturday as surface high pressure far northeast of the state dissipates and is eventually replaced with a new high that will slowly move towards the islands early next week. The result will be light to locally moderate trades remaining strong enough to focus showers and clouds across windward locations (especially during the overnight through early morning hours), but weak enough to support nighttime land breezes and afternoon sea breezes for leeward locations.

Marine

Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades will continue today, then shift out of the east and ease into the gentle to moderate category Saturday as high pressure to the north weakens. Land and sea breeze conditions near the coasts will result, which should persist through Sunday. Trade winds will return to moderate to fresh levels Monday, then hold through midweek.
Surf along south facing shores will trend up through the day Saturday, peak around the advisory level late Sunday through Monday, then slowly ease through midweek as a south-southwest swell moves through. A medium period southeast swell will pick up Monday, then peak late Tuesday through midweek, which will add to the mix along exposed shores. Surf will return to typical summer levels late next week.
Surf along east facing shores will ease into the weekend as the trades back off, but may come up Sunday if a long-period easterly swell from former Hurricane Kay in the far eastern Pacific materializes. Small and choppy surf will pick up next week as the trades return.
Surf along north facing shores will remain small through next week, with no significant sources expected in the long range.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov