Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 87. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 67. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 86. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weak disturbance moving westward through the islands will continue to briefly enhance showers across the state through the morning hours. Otherwise a series of high pressure systems far north to northeast of the region will keep Hawaii in a moderate to breezy trade wind pattern through the rest of next week. Expect typical passing shower activity through the week, mainly affecting windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.

Discussion

The regional satellite picture this morning shows a band of unstable low clouds, associated with a weak low level trough, drifting westward through the islands of Oahu and Molokai. This band of enhanced showers will continue to drift westward, spreading shower coverage from Kauai to Molokai through the morning hours. These showers will mainly affect windward and mountain areas with brief drying trends after the cloud band passes each island. Periods of high level cirrus clouds are also expected to pass over the islands through the week enhancing tropical sunrise and sunset colors.
Moderate to breezy trade winds remain in the forecast through the end of next week as a series of high pressure systems far north to northeast of the islands will keep the subtropical ridge moderately strong through the week. Atmospheric stability will vary from day to day with more stable conditions forecast today following the passage of the current low level trough. Periods of showers will develop from Sunday through Thursday, and enhanced showers are forecast in the long range from Thursday night into Saturday due to a passing unstable upper level low. Not much changes to the forecast grids this morning with only slight adjustments to wind and precipitation coverage across the region.

Aviation

High pressure building far northeast of the islands will strengthen trade winds into the moderate to breezy range beginning later today and beyond. Showers and accompanying MVFR conditions will mainly affect windward and mauka sections.
AIRMETs for mountain obscuration are in effect over windward sections of the Big Island and Maui as showery low clouds have been moving onshore.

Marine

A trough northwest of Kauai will continue to weaken and dissipate through the weekend. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure near Kauai will shift further north and will allow the breezy trade winds to spread westward across the state. A Small Craft Advisory remains posted for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Additional strengthening of the trade winds is possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a new high builds far north of the state.
The current north (350-010 degree) swell will continue to steadily decline today. A series of small northwest swells is expected during the first half of next week followed by small north swells during the second half of the week. No significant swells are expected for the foreseeable future.
Small long-period south swells will maintain above average surf along south facing shores through today. This swell should begin declining later today into Sunday. Another run of small south swells is expected Thursday through end of next week. The return of breezy trade winds will produce small and choppy surf along east facing shores through the weekend. A gradual increase of windswell is expected towards the middle of next week as the trade winds strengthen over the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov