Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 55 to 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 54 to 59 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 52 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 55 to 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 54 to 59 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through early next week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. An upper level low will linger near the state through early next week, which will allow for some locally heavy showers over windward areas at times as occasional increases in low-level moisture embedded within the trades move into the islands. An uptick in showers is expected around Sunday and Monday, followed by drier conditions from Tuesday onward.

Discussion

Early this morning, surface high pressure is centered about 1700 miles northeast of Honolulu with ridging extending westward north of the islands. Meanwhile, latest satellite imagery shows a large cluster of showers and clouds across Kauai and its adjacent waters. Observed rainfall totals across the Garden Isle overnight indicate that the showers have been fairly light to moderate in nature, with six hour totals generally less than 0.75″ for most locations. Nevertheless, the light to moderate showers have been persistent early this morning and will continue for the next few hours. Elsewhere, showers are more isolated to scattered and are favoring windward and mauka locations.
The high far northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain today and throughout the next several days. Showers embedded within the trade wind flow will favor windward and mauka locations, especially through the rest of this morning. Direr air approaching from the east may decrease overall windward shower coverage from this afternoon through Saturday.
The main forecast challenge for Saturday night into early next week will be the evolution of a low aloft that continues to linger over or near the state. Latest guidance continues to suggest that this upper level low may deepen and shift slightly more west by Sunday, which will likely help enhance the trade wind showers. Details still remain uncertain, but some locally heavy showers will be possible for windward areas around the Sunday to Monday time frame as instability and precipitable water increase. With this morning's forecast updates, rain chances were trended up a bit during the Sunday night through Monday morning time frame as this is currently the window of highest confidence, but the overall forecast philosophy remains the same.
Slight variations in the strength of the surface high far northeast of the islands will result in minor day to day fluctuations in trade wind speeds over the next several days, but they are expected to generally remain at moderate to locally breezy levels overall. Drier, more typical trade wind weather could return around Tuesday of next week.

Aviation

A ridge to the north of the islands will maintain a moderate to breezy trade wind flow over the region into the weekend. Expect clouds and showers to favor the windward and mauka areas, however an upper level low just north of the islands will allow some of the showers to be carried to leeward areas. Some MVFR conditions are possible in the clouds and showers, more so over windward locations. No AIRMET Sierra is in effect at this time, but one can't be ruled out for tempo mountain obscuration.
A weak trade wind inversion remains evident on the overnight Hilo sounding. Meanwhile the Kauai sounding shows a moist airmass with no discernible inversion. Satellite and radar show more clouds and showers over the western end of the state closer to the upper level low. The lack of a trade wind inversion over the western end is limiting low level turbulence to the lee of the islands, however the same can not be said for the eastern end. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain. This AIRMET is expected to remain in place through much of today.

Marine

Surface high pressure anchored roughly 1,200 to 1,500 nm northeast of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds through the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. The forecast keeps SCA conditions in these same waters through the weekend.
A declining south-southwest swell will drop surf to summertime background levels today. A slight increase in south swell is possible over the weekend, followed by a return to small summertime background level surf early next week. Trades upwind of the state will generate rough choppy seas near leading to moderate surf along east facing shores through the week. An out- of-season, medium period northwest swell from former Northwest Pacific Typhoon Guchol will build on Saturday, peak above June average at 3 to 4 feet Sunday and Monday, then slowly decline Tuesday and Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov