Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 88. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 69 to 91. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 58 to 75. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 90. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect gusty trade winds through early Friday as dry and stable air settles over the region. Trades will gradually decrease over the weekend into next week as relatively dry conditions continue.

Discussion

Our airmass continues to slowly dry and stabilize this morning. Shower activity decreased noticeably since yesterday afternoon and rainfall amounts were small overnight compared to the past several days. Satellite loop shows patchy broken high clouds somewhat obscuring the view of lower clouds. However, only sparse windward low cloud cover is noted through the high cloud cover gaps. Relative humidity is trending lower and trade winds remain breezy in many locations. Overnight soundings show an inversion strengthening near 4500 feet. This inversion, while somewhat elevated yesterday afternoon, is expected to lower over the next 24 to 48 hours as upper ridging builds in.
Expect gusty winds for the next few days due to the lowering inversion and a steepened pressure gradient. Models show the areas normally prone to accelerated trades, such as South Point and Leeward Kohala on the Big Island and leeward West Maui, may expect strong wind gusts near wind advisory threshold. This condition will need to be closely monitored over the next day or two. Trade winds look to ease to breezy levels this weekend and hold, along with relatively dry conditions, through early next week.

Aviation

Breezy to strong trades should persist over the next few days. SHRA and low cigs will favor windward and mauka locations. SCT SHRA look to also build up on the Kona slopes of the Big Island during the afternoon hours. MVFR conds will be possible within SHRA but VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is not in effect but with lowering cigs and SHRA it may be needed tonight for windward locations.
AIRMET Tango for mod low level turb is in effect for areas downwind of island terrain and will likely be needed for the next couple of days due to the strong trades.

Marine

Surface high pressure far northeast of the waters will continue to produce strong to locally near gale trade winds through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian waters through Friday. As the high weakens this weekend, trade winds should ease back to fresh to locally strong speeds. The SCA may need to be trimmed by the weekend to just the typical windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island.
Rough and choppy surf will continue over the next few days along east facing shores before gradually easing early next week. Local wind swell may wrap into select north and south facing shores. All other shores look to remain nearly flat today before a background south swell could produce some small surf along south facing shores on Friday. Otherwise, no significant swells are expected for the rest of the week.

Fire weather

Gusty trade winds tonight through Friday could present some fire weather concerns in the normally windier trade wind areas and downslope leeward locations such as West Maui and leeward Kohala on the Big Island. The strongest wind gusts are more likely on Thursday and Friday as the inversion strengthens. Trade winds will gradually decrease this weekend into early next week, but dry leeward conditions will likely persist. Humidity will generally trend downward over the next few days, especially across leeward areas, adding to the fire weather concerns in those areas with gusty winds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov