Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 59 to 73. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The high pressure ridge strengthening north of the state will maintain a typical trade wind weather pattern into Thursday, with clouds and limited showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Winds will weaken by early Friday before trending southeast on Saturday, as an area of low pressure passes well west of the state. Trade winds will redevelop Sunday and Monday as the ridge restrengthens north of the state.

Discussion

Radar trends this morning show scattered to isolated showers drifting across the islands, focused mainly along windward areas in strengthening trade wind flow. The band of enhanced moisture that has been drifting across the region since Sunday, continues to exit westward of the state. The latest satellite trends continue to show a much drier airmass streaming into the region from the east (PW values falling below 1.35 inches). Both satellite and model data support even drier air moving into the region today through Wednesday.
The surface ridge becoming reestablished north of the state will maintain moderate trade wind flow across the islands to begin the work week. Shallow layered moisture will limit the areal coverage of showers to mainly windward locations into Thursday, with the greatest areal coverage of showers expected during overnight and early morning hours. Leeward areas are expected to remain mainly dry through the period, however increasing trades could potentially push brief showers leeward.
Thursday night through Saturday, another area of low pressure organizing well northwest of the state on Thursday, will quickly drop southward while maintaining a track over 800 miles west of Kauai. This pattern will weaken winds and promote a more southeast wind direction Friday night and Saturday. The weaker background winds Thursday into Friday, will help support sea breeze clouds and showers across leeward areas, while southeast trades organize showers across the windward zones. Recent model runs have trended toward an increase of mid level moisture across the islands Friday into the weekend, as the surface low drops southward. The increased moisture could potentially enhance shower activity by the end of the week, especially over southeast facing slopes as well as where low level winds are able to converge along terrain features.
Sunday and Monday, the high pressure ridge will rebuild north of the state as the area of low pressure exits southwest of Kauai. This pattern will support the return of more typical trade wind weather, as drier easterly trades redirect showers to favored windward mauka areas.

Aviation

With high pressure strengthening north of the islands, trade winds will become moderate to breezy as the day progresses. Any showers, with accompanying MVFR conditions, will mainly affect windward and mauka sections statewide. VFR will prevail overall, however.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

Upper ridging will take hold the next couple of days and provide stable conditions over the state though mid week. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf of Alaska will produce a tight enough pressure gradient down across the islands to maintain moderate to fresh trades, locally strong, the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect within the notoriously windier bays and channels around Maui County and Big Island, as well as south of Big Island, through Tuesday afternoon. As the driving high weakens Wednesday, mid to late week winds will fall back to more gentle and moderate speeds. A developing trough of low pressure northwest of the islands may veer winds more south late in the week.
Small, short period south and southeast swells will continue to decline into Tuesday. A reinforcing small, long period south swell arrives late Tuesday and will pass around the islands through the end of the week. A moderate size, slightly longer period northwest swell arrives late today and fills in through Tuesday. Strengthened trade winds support more elevated wind wave, choppy surf along east-facing shores the next couple of days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov