Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 76 to 84. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 72. South winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 76 to 85. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 85. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 73. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 85. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 84. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 70 to 77. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. South winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 70 to 78. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 66 to 84. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 72. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs 66 to 85. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate southwest winds will deliver a few clouds and a shower or two through Saturday, mainly to leeward portions of Kauai and Oahu. From Christmas Day into next week, winds will be light and variable, with mostly dry conditions.

Discussion

A strong zonal jet across the N Pacific will ensure that an E-W oriented surface ridge remains near the islands well into next week, generally keeping winds light, and the weather mostly dry. A mid- level ridge building directly overhead later this weekend into next week will severely limit already diminished rainfall chances. In the short term however, a cold front will stall just NW of the Kauai today and tonight, with another front passing by to the N on Saturday. Although the bulk of the associated low-level moisture will remain NW of the islands, the proximity of the fronts may bring a few showery low clouds to Kauai and Oahu, while also pushing the surface ridge SE of the Big Island. Associated high clouds will occasionally move over the islands through Saturday.
With the ridge suppressed southeastward, light to moderate SW winds will continue through Saturday, especially on Kauai and Oahu, where limited low clouds and showers will tend to favor normally leeward areas. In this regime, windward areas of Kauai and Oahu may see some locally gusty conditions, mainly during the afternoon hours, especially on Saturday. A mostly dry land/sea breeze weather pattern is expected over Maui and Hawaii counties, with just a few upslope afternoon clouds, and mostly clear and cool mornings. The fronts will lift N later in the weekend, and the ridge will follow suit, with the mostly dry land/sea breeze pattern spreading to all islands. Little significant change is anticipated through most of next week as the ridge remains close to the islands. A brief period of trade winds may occur around the middle of the week when the ridge briefly moves N of all islands.

Aviation

A low pressure system passing far north of region will keep trade winds at bay today with light to moderate southwest winds prevailing. A weak front approaching Kauai approaching Kauai from the northwest may bring isolated to scattered showers to Kauai and surrounding waters. Otherwise, VFR conditions for all airports and TAF locations.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

A weak high pressure ridge will linger near the eastern end of the island chain as two cold fronts pass north of the state over the next couple of days, with light to moderate southwesterly winds through Saturday evening. The ridge will then slowly move north over the state, resulting in mainly light and variable winds through early next week. Trades may return by mid to late next week as the ridge gradually strengthens north of the area.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain elevated due to overlapping northwest swells through the weekend. The current fading northwest (330 degrees) swell continues to produce elevated surf near High Surf Advisory levels (HSA). A new, large northwest swell (310 to 320 degrees) will continue to build locally and is expected to peak late tonight with solid advisory level surf. Therefore, the HSA has been extended through Saturday afternoon, but could be extended further as overlapping northwest swells are forecast to be slow to fade. This swell will also elevate seas above 10 feet today, so a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued and will go into effect at 10 am HST. High seas and surf heights are expected to finally drop below HSA criteria early next week. Small surf heights remain in the forecast for south and east facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for North and West facing shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu Molokai and for North facing shores of Maui.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov