Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds around 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 70 to 78. North winds 15 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 91. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 44 to 59. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 90. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 77. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 91. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect a trade wind weather pattern through the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Trade winds will remain in the moderate to locally breezy range. Total rainfall will be light as a persistent subsidence inversion caps cloud and shower development.

Discussion

There is little to no change in synoptic setup and forecast philosophy from last evening. High pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. Overnight soundings show that our airmass is not particularly dry or stable, but is capped at around 5000 feet by a subsidence inversion that limits cloud and shower development. Satellite loop shows a broad field of stable broken to overcast low clouds extending from Hawaiian windward waters almost all the way to the mainland. The western edge of this cloud field covers most windward shores and slopes at this hour. However, radar corroborates the effects of the capping inversion by showing very little activity beneath this cloud cover.
Models show high pressure will remain parked far north of the islands through the week, while ridging aloft caps cloud and shower development. This pattern will keep the state embedded within trade wind flow. Moderate to breezy east northeast trade winds will continue into the foreseeable future. Limited showers riding in on the trades will focus over windward shores and slopes. The leeward side of the Big Island will see a diurnal pattern of mostly clear skies in the morning and then increasing clouds and scattered showers each afternoon before clearing again overnight.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next several days. These locally breezy winds will support continuing AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of the terrain of all islands through at least mid-week.
As of 2 am Tuesday, satellite imagery showed thick bands of stratocumulus and scattered light showers hugging the northeast slopes and coasts of the Hawaiian Islands. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for Kauai and Oahu. Conditions may temporarily spread to the windward slopes of the other islands later this morning. Clouds are expected to lift and clear over inland areas in the afternoon.
This trade wind weather pattern with clouds and showers favoring windward locations, especially during the overnight through morning hours, will continue through the remainder of the week.

Marine

Surface high pressure centered far north northwest of the islands is producing a tight pressure gradient down across the state. This will equate to fresh to locally strong trade winds through the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for winds in effect for the typical windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island has been extended through early Thursday morning.
No significant swells are expected over the several days. Thus, small surf heights along all shores are forecast this week. A small, long period south swell that arrived yesterday and has produced a minor bump in south-facing surf heights that will linger through mid week. East-facing shore surf driven by trade wind wave energy will remain small and choppy for the foreseeable future.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov