Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 67 to 74. North winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 30 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 43 to 55. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 69 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 57 to 74. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 88. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Persistent high pressure far north of the islands will support locally strong trade winds through the weekend. Brief and passing showers will favor windward areas, especially during nights and mornings, with a few sprinkles occasionally spreading leeward.

Discussion

Seasonable trade wind weather will prevail, with wind speeds slightly stronger than normal.
Surface high pressure centered well NNE of the islands will strengthen slightly and drift W the next couple of days, supporting a gradually increasing trend in wind speeds, with locally windy conditions developing by the weekend.
Morning soundings showed a very strong (15 degrees F at PHLI) subsidence inversion based around 6-7 kft, PWAT just above June norms near 1.4″, and modest instability aloft associated with a mid- and upper-level low centered W of Kauai. VIIRS Day/Night band and traditional infrared satellite images indicate that the incoming low cloud field has become overcast and increasingly stable overnight, with radar detecting a few light showers embedded. Scattered high clouds are seen moving N over the area.
The mid- and upper-level low will drift W the next couple of days, allowing a mid-level warm pool to move over the islands from the E, but periods of patchy high clouds are expected to continue. Just a few showers are expected today into Thursday, with low cloud and shower coverage likely following a diurnal pattern – with coverage greatest during nights and mornings. Increased PWAT moving over the islands from the E is expected to lead to increased low clouds and light windward showers Friday and Saturday, despite strong stability in place. This moisture is associated with a weak front currently near 27N-30N between 140W and 148W.
The summer solstice will occur at 1051 AM HST Friday June 20th, marking the astronomical start of summer.

Aviation

Trades will gradually strengthen to become breezy to locally windy today, with showers and low cigs favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods of MVFR conditions are possible in any showers, which are expected to increase slightly in coverage during the late night to early morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence lee of mountains due to the strengthening trade winds.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward sections of the Big Island through this morning.

Marine

A high pressure system north-northeast of Hawaii will strengthen over the next two days, keeping fresh to strong trade winds in the forecast for most areas, and near gale-force winds over some of the windier eastern channels. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most waters around the Big Island and Maui County. Trade winds will increase into the breezy to windy range, as the high center shifts more north of the islands on Thursday and Friday. The SCA will expand in coverage over all coastal waters from Thursday into early next week.
Expect diminished south shore surf through Friday. A mix of small, long period south and southwest swells may push surf heights up near seasonal averages this weekend. Another small long period south- southwest swell is expected to fill in early next week.
Surf along east facing shores will gradually trend up Thursday on through the weekend as trade wind speeds strengthen by Thursday. Surf along north facing shores will return to seasonally tiny levels. Additional very small background pulses are possible Thursday and again early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov