Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 69 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 90. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 69 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 68 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 92. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 60 to 76. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 91. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will deliver limited and brief showers the next couple of days, mainly to windward areas. From late Friday through the weekend, island weather will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of a tropical cyclone that is expected to develop far east-southeast of the islands.

Discussion

A stable and breezy summertime trade wind weather pattern will prevail through Friday as deep-layer high pressure prevails over the central N Pacific. Brief showers will favor windward areas, mainly during nights and mornings.
From late Friday through the weekend, confidence in forecast details remains on the lower end of the spectrum, but models are coming to an increased consensus on some of the larger scale features. A tropical cyclone (TC) is likely to form about 1350 miles ESE of the islands today, and head generally westward while intensifying the next couple of days, potentially passing dangerously close to the islands over the weekend.
It is too early for forecast specifics with respect to potential impacts in the islands, but the triple threat that a TC could bring includes strong and damaging winds, heavy and potentially flooding rainfall, as well as high surf and storm surge.
If a TC does form, note that public and marine forecasts from WFO Honolulu will be updated on a modified schedule, in conjunction with the latest TC forecast issued at 5 am/pm and 11 am/pm HST. As a reminder, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu has forecast responsibility for TCs after they move W of 140W. This potential tropical cyclone, regardless of development level, will likely cross 140W late tonight or Thursday morning. Throughout the life cycle of any TC near Hawaii, forecast information can be found on the web at hurricanes.gov.
It is the peak of hurricane season here in Hawaii, and now is a good time to make sure that you and your family are prepared. For more information, visit weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will increase slightly today. Low cigs and SHRA should be focused mainly over windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR conds will be possible with any SHRA, but VFR conds should prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
AIRMET Tango may be needed later this morning to account for moderate low level turb downwind of the terrain of all islands.

Marine

Trades will strengthen to more areawide fresh to locally strong magnitudes beginning today and will persist at these speeds through the remainder of the week. This is in response to a large area of high pressure anchored far north of the islands that is producing a tight pressure gradient back toward the islands. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typical windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island until early Thursday morning. The SCA will likely be expanded in areal coverage to account for these stronger trades. There is a high probability that a tropical depression or tropical cyclone will develop near the delineation between the East Pacific and Central Pacific basins (i.e.,140W longitude) in the next 24 hours. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does develop, it is forecast to track westward toward the islands during the remainder of the week, possibly reaching the local southeastern waters this weekend. In such a scenario, offshore conditions will become quite windy with the development of gales likely occurring within eastern island bays and channels. Seas will also significantly increase in both wind wave and in easterly swell originating from the captured fetch. This week's marine forecasts will be highly dependent upon the potential evolution, development and track of a potential tropical cyclone.
Very small size, long period forerunners outracing the northwest (310 degrees) swell from once Typhoon Ampil are showing up at both the Hanalei and Waimea Bays early this morning. The lower period swell energy will fill in around Kauai's shores near sunrise. This swell will quickly lift surf to near head high within larger sets along Kauai's north and west-facing exposures this morning. Better blocked Oahu should experience this lifted surf by the afternoon. The recent south (190 degree) swell that peaked early Tuesday morning has leveled out and will hold small through the day before fading Thursday. Wind wave eastern chop will increase in the next day or so as a result of strengthening trades over and upstream of the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov