Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 89. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds will prevail today as the surface ridge to the north remains weak. Rainfall will favor windward and mauka locations, but a few showers, some heavy, may develop across leeward areas as a disturbance aloft moves overhead. Locally breezy trades and more stable conditions will return Tuesday and persist through the weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a ridge of high pressure is located around 900 miles north of Honolulu, with broad but weak troughing present between the ridge and the Hawaiian islands. Aloft a closed upper low can be seen in water vapor imagery around 100 to 150 miles to the north of Oahu and Kauai. The broad surface troughing has kept the pressure gradient a bit weaker than normal, with generally moderate trade winds blowing across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery partly to mostly cloudy conditions in windward areas, with partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with a few of these showers reaching leeward communities at times. Main short term focus is on rain chances and trade wind trends.
The broad trough of low pressure over and north of the state will gradually dampen out and shift westward during the next couple days. Moderate trades will prevail today with localized sea breezes developing in some of the more sheltered leeward areas this afternoon. The trades will increase a bit tonight and hold at moderate to locally breezy levels Tuesday through Friday. The trades may ease a bit this weekend as the ridge to the north weakens.
As for the remaining weather details, the airmass will remain unstable with the upper level low near the western islands today and tonight. This will allow some more robust showers to move in on the trades and produce brief downpours. Additionally, some locally heavy showers could develop in leeward areas with the assistance of sea breezes during the afternoon and early evening hours, before fizzling out overnight. A mid-level ridge building in from the east will bring a more stable airmass to the islands Tuesday through Thursday. This should result in a return to typical trade wind weather featuring mainly windward and mauka showers. Another disturbance aloft could bring a slight increase in trade wind showers Friday through the weekend.

Aviation

Moderate trades will usher in low clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas, with a few showers occasionally spilling over to leeward sides. Sea breezes will develop along some wind-protected areas this afternoon, leading to low cloud and shower development over those areas. Then trades will strengthen slightly heading into tomorrow.
MVFR conditions can be expected in any showers. Otherwise, VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed tonight for the eastern end of the state as a plume of moisture rides in on the trades.

Marine

High pressure generally north of the state will drive moderate to locally fresh trades today. High pressure northwest of the islands will strengthen through the middle of the week. This will produce fresh to locally strong trades from Tuesday through the remainder of the week. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary for the windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island Tuesday.
Surf along north and west-facing shores will remain very small today. A small to moderate size, long to medium period northwest swell (330 degrees) is timed to arrive Tuesday from a passing North Pacific cold front. This swell will increase mid week north- facing shore surf to well above head high along reefs and shorelines where northwest energy is best focused. North shore surf is expected to remain well under the High Surf Advisory levels. South-facing shore surf will remain small as a mix of small, medium period southwest swells pass through the next few days. Eastern shore waves will remain small in response to recent light trades. An upward trend in eastern chop will occur later today and will persist through the week in response to strengthened trades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov