Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Memorial Day: Isolated showers between 9am and noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 7 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Memorial Day: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 96. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Memorial Day: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 95. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Central Maui

Memorial Day: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 95. North northeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Upcountry

Memorial Day: Increasing clouds, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Memorial Day: Isolated showers after 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. East southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Memorial Day: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. North wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east northeast in the evening.

Tuesday: Scattered showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 77. Light and variable wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Memorial Day: Isolated showers between 9am and noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Light east wind becoming east northeast 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect a land and sea breeze weather pattern today, with increased clouds and scant afternoon and evening showers across interior and mauka areas. A more typical trade wind pattern will return Tuesday, then continue through next weekend.

Discussion

Short-term guidance remains in good agreement and depicts a weakness in the ridge lingering today due to a front passing to the north. The low-level flow has veered out of the south over the western end of the state and southeast over the eastern end in response to the loosened pressure gradient and the ridge that has shifted south over the area. This will result in a land and sea breeze regime continuing today. Although sea breezes will lead to clouds and showers setting up over interior and mauka locations through the afternoon hours, rising upper heights and subsidence aloft will limit rainfall chances/accumulations.
Guidance remains in decent agreement and shows a return of a more typical trade wind pattern Tuesday through Wednesday as the front to the north diminishes and the ridge strengthens. Clouds and showers will shift back over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours. Guidance does depict the moisture axis associated with the tail- end of the front drifting southward into the western end of the state by Thursday. If this holds together, better windward shower coverage can’t be ruled out Thursday into Friday. Dry and stable conditions, however, should limit accumulations. Expect the trade wind pattern to continue through next weekend.

Aviation

Land breezes will continue to keep most of the showers and low level cloud cover over the open ocean for the next several hours. By late morning, however, expect sea breezes to develop and bring showers to elevated terrain and over island interiors. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany this activity.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Light and variable winds will persist over the western islands today, while light to moderate east-southeasterly winds prevail over the eastern end of the state. Trade winds will return from east to west across the island chain tonight and Tuesday, and strengthen to moderate and locally strong levels Wednesday into the weekend.
A series of small southerly swells will keep near to slightly below normal surf in place along south facing shores through Thursday. South shore surf could trend up slightly late in the week and over the weekend, as a couple new overlapping south and south-southwest swells move through.
The current northwest swell will slowly trend upward through Tuesday, bringing a boost to surf along north and west facing shores. After peaking Tuesday, this swell will trend downward Wednesday through Friday, with north shore surf likely going flat over the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain very small through Tuesday, then trend upward Wednesday through the weekend as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov