Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Windy, with an east northeast wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. West southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. East southeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming south southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with a northeast wind 13 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with a northeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. West wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. South southeast wind 7 to 14 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. East northeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Windy, with a northeast wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Windy, with a northeast wind 23 to 28 mph decreasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Dry and breezy easterly trade wind conditions are expected through the holiday weekend and into early next week. Any showers that develop will favor windward and mauka areas, mainly through the overnight and early morning periods as pockets of moisture move through. With the exception of the Kona slopes of the Big Island through the afternoons, the drought conditions will persist over leeward areas with little to no rainfall expected. Trade winds should ease slightly by midweek as the ridge to the north weakens.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the subtropical ridge strengthening as high pressure builds to the north over the weekend. Trades will respond and increase into the breezy category. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Dry and stable conditions aloft combined with a strong subsidence inversion should limit accumulations each day, with little to none expected over our parched leeward grounds. As a result, the drought conditions will continue to expand across most leeward locations. The preliminary rainfall summary for June reflects these conditions with Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and Hilo all coming in below average (Hilo had 2.26 inches, which is around 5 inches below normal for June).

Aviation

Locally strong trade winds and a very stable island atmosphere will lead to moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of the mountains on all islands. AIRMET TANGO will therefore remain posted for the foreseeable future. With a strong subsidence inversion keeping low clouds capped near 6000 feet, shower intensity and coverage will remain limited and VFR will prevail. Isolated MVFR will remain possible, mainly over windward areas.

Marine

A surface high pressure system, which is currently located far north-northeast of the state, is expected to build slightly as it moves west to a position far north of the islands this weekend. The tightening pressure gradient over the region will produce locally strong trade winds across the state through most of the Independence Day Holiday Weekend. These robust trades will also generate elevated, rough seas, especially through the channels. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the waters south of the Big Island, the Oahu Leeward Waters, and Maalaea Bay, in addition to the Kaiwi, Pailolo, Alenuihaha Channels. The pressure gradient is expected to become even tighter later today, so the SCA is also in effect starting this evening for the Kauai Northwest and Leeward Waters, the Kauai Channel, and the Oahu Windward Waters.
The current south-southwest swell will continue to slowly subside through Saturday. This will likely cause surf heights to decrease to near summertime average heights along south facing shores as we head into the weekend. The forerunners from a new long-period south-southwest swell are expected to spread up over the area starting Sunday. This swell will continue to increase, and will likely cause surf heights to peak above the High Surf Advisory threshold along south facing shores starting late Sunday night or Monday. This elevated surf may hold along south facing shores into the middle of next week based on the latest guidance.
A small northwest swell, which is expected to arrive later today, may cause a slight increase in surf heights along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands from this evening through Saturday. This swell will gradually decline from Saturday night through Sunday. The locally strong trade winds will cause choppy surf to gradually increase along east facing shores into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov