Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Independence Day: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Independence Day: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 89. Light east northeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Independence Day: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Independence Day: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Independence Day: Sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming east 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

East Maui

Independence Day: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Independence Day: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East northeast wind 11 to 13 mph.

Monday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Independence Day: Sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will ease to moderate levels tonight and Monday. Expect a healthy amount of windward showers during the overnight hours while tapering off during the day. Some brief rainfall will occasionally reach leeward locations. Typical trade wind weather will continue through the week.

Discussion

High pressure to the north will maintain breezy trade winds today with winds easing a bit tonight and Monday as the high shifts to the west. Early morning satellite imagery shows bands of showery low clouds moving into the windward slopes from Maui to Kauai. Expect windward rainfall to continue along with an occasional leeward shower before partial clearing by midday. The Big Island can expect typical trade wind weather into next week with off and on rain over windward areas and a diurnal pattern on the leeward side of mostly clear nights and mornings becoming mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoons and evenings.
A static trade wind weather pattern will continue through the upcoming week with moderate to breezy easterly winds, and showers mainly falling over windward coasts and slopes. Occasional patches of moisture riding the trades will bring bouts of increasing rainfall.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will drive breezy trade winds for the next couple of days, while a mid-level ridge maintains stable conditions with an inversion based between 5,000 and 7,000 ft. AIRMET Tango remains in effect below 8,000 ft over and immediately southwest through northwest of mountains for all islands, and will likely remain so through Monday.
Aside from afternoon clouds and a few showers on the Kona slopes of the Big Island later this afternoon, MVFR conditions will remain focused over windward areas. There is currently no AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration in effect, and conditions for this remain borderline early this morning. Will monitor for any issuance requirements.

Marine

Strong high pressure far north of the area continues to produce fresh to strong trade winds across the area early this morning. The trades will drop off slightly tonight through the first half of next week, but will likely remain strong in the typically windy areas around Maui and the Big Island. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back a bit this morning as the trades have eased ever so slightly across portions of the marine area, with the SCA now covering the waters around Kauai and the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 PM this evening. The SCA will likely be scaled back to include only the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island later today, with this SCA likely continuing through the middle of the week.
A new long period south swell is just beginning to arrive at the NOAA buoys well south of Hawaii as of 3 AM, and is expected to gradually fill in locally this afternoon and tonight. This swell will bring an extended period of well above normal surf to south facing shores this week. Surf will likely hold at High Surf Advisory levels Monday through Wednesday, with the peak day expected to be on Tuesday. The swell will then gradually lower Thursday into next weekend. A series of small short period northwest swells are expected through the middle of the week, keeping surf just above typical summertime flat levels. Strong easterly trades over and upstream of the islands will continue to produce elevated short period surf along east facing shores through Monday. East shore surf will gradually trend downward and below the summertime average Tuesday through late next week as the trade winds over and upstream of the state relax.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov