Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a light east wind becoming east northeast 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 73. Breezy, with an east wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 90. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Windy, with an east wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Isolated showers before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with a northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Light and variable wind.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

East Maui

Today: Frequent showers, mainly before noon. High near 81. Light and variable wind becoming east 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South southeast wind 7 to 13 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Friday: Scattered showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will strengthen later today through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, with the best chances through the overnight and early morning periods. A return of drier trade wind conditions is anticipated Friday through early next week.

Discussion

The upper trough that led to cloudy conditions over the western end of the state yesterday continues to lift northward and away from the area this morning. Plenty of middle- to upper-level dry air following it has cleared the high clouds out over Kauai and Oahu. Expect this trend to continue today with stable trade wind conditions returning. There is a large area of moisture moving into the eastern end of the state that will support decent windward and mauka shower coverage through the morning hours today. In its wake, satellite data reflects dry air farther upstream of the Big Island. Guidance has initialized well with this and has the dry air moving through from east to west tonight through Friday. This dry air combined with rising upper heights will lead to more of a suppressed and stable environment this weekend, which will limit cloud/shower windward coverage. Similar conditions will carry into next week.

Aviation

Surface high pressure north of the islands will maintain a moderate to locally strong trade wind flow through at least tonight. AIRMET Tango for low level turb, south through west of mountains, will continue through tonight as well. Scattered to broken low clouds and showers riding in with the trades upwind of the islands will result in brief MVFR ceiling and vis, favoring the windward and mountain areas. The lee side of the Big Island can expect a couple of afternoon and evening showers as well. Tops of these clouds and showers will be around 8k feet. No other AIRMETS are anticipated today.

Marine

A high pressure system far north of the region will slowly drift eastward and build from Friday into the weekend. Trade winds will strengthen from Friday onward. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. This SCA may be expanded in coverage over the next two days.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Friday, then trend up over the weekend in response to strengthening trades locally and upstream of the Hawaiian Islands.
Southerly swell activity will remain rather low for this time of the year with just background swells expected from the south and southeast. Nearly flat conditions will continue for north and west facing shores into early next week. Buoy 51001 observations are not showing any reflection of the potential small, west-northwest swell this morning, which supports the summertime conditions continuing.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov