Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will focus showers over windward and mauka areas mainly overnight and into the early morning hours. Trades will trend weaker from Saturday onward leading to reduced windward shower coverage and the potential for sea breezes and more interior clouds by early next week.

Discussion

Regional water vapor imagery depicts a closed mid-level low near 150W/30N that will slowly meander WSW as it remains cut off from the mean flow through early next week. Weakly cyclonic flow around the southwestern periphery of this low is already established over the forecast area and has given inversion heights a boost to around 9- 10kft per the Lihue and Hilo morning soundings. This in turn supported several very transient locally heavy showers last night through early this morning and may support a few more tonight. With that said, overall windward shower coverage will be on the decline tonight through early next week as the surface reflection of the aforementioned low approaches from the east and diminishes the pressure gradient over the area. As a result, Sunday through Tuesday appear likely to feature, at the least, a modified sea breeze regime with afternoon clouds and a few showers over the most sheltered locales. If easterly flow sufficiently weakens, a pure sea breeze pattern may manifest Monday and/or Tuesday leading to a greater coverage of inland clouds and showers. Cut off features are typically low-predictability in the medium range, but consensus exists among the latest modeling that that instability over the western end of the state may increase by the middle of next week as the 500mb cold pool shifts overhead.

Aviation

Moderate trade winds will continue into the weekend, with high pressure north of the islands. Winds are expected to remain just below thresholds for AIRMET Tango. Clouds and showers have thinned over Kauai and Oahu, so have cancelled the AIRMET Sierra for those areas. However clouds and showers persist over the windward side of the Big Island where AIRMET Sierra continues, and now expecting that to linger past mid-day. Aside from the windward side of the Big Island, expect VFR conditions to prevail, with some MVFR pockets in passing clouds and showers mainly overnight.

Marine

High pressure is centered far north northeast of the area. This places the islands in a moderate trade wind environment. Winds will gradually diminish this weekend and remain rather light into early next week as a surface trough passes east to west just north of the area. The mean background flow will remain easterly but local land and sea breezes will develop under this light wind scenario.
A new small south swell will begin to fill in today, peak on Saturday, then lower slowly into early next week. Background southerly swells will then dominate through most of next week. Surf will continue to diminish along east facing shores as the trade winds diminish through the weekend and on into the middle of next week. Surf will gradually increase later in the week with an uptick in trade winds expected. No other significant swells are

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.