Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 82 to 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 91. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 61 to 73. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 90. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds have returned and will continue into the holiday weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trades may ease late in the weekend through early next week as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

Near-term guidance remains consistent and depicts a drying trend today as upper heights rise and the surface ridge builds to the north. Breezy trades combined with lowering dewpoints will result in pleasant conditions. Winds may near advisory levels in the typically windier locations of Maui County and the Big Island through the day Friday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, with the best coverage overnight though the morning periods as pockets of moisture move through. The high clouds that have filled in will linger over the western end of the state today, then shift west of the area tonight through Friday.
The long-term guidance depicts the pressure gradient loosening late in the weekend and into early next week as an upper low moves in and a weakness forms in the subtropical ridge. If this materializes, trades will become disrupted with another land and sea breeze pattern setting up over sheltered leeward areas.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue over the next few days. Cloud and shower activity will favor windward and mountain areas trending higher in coverage during the overnight and early morning hours. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with the showers. Also, high cirrus clouds will continue to move over the islands today.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

High pressure northeast of the state will assert more of an influence upon the region and ultimately strengthen local trade winds through Saturday. More areawide moderate to locally strong trades the next couple of days has prompted a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Saturday afternoon for the windier areas surrounding Maui County and south of the Big Island. Trades are expected to further strengthen Friday and impact more western waters. This could warrant an areal expansion of the SCA Friday.
A small, long period south swell filling in from today through Saturday will be reinforced by small, medium period south and short period southeast swells the next several days. These swells will maintain near seasonal south facing shore surf through the holiday weekend. A series of small, medium to slightly longer period south swells will arrive Labor Day and hold through most of next week. Strengthened trades over and upstream of the chain the next few days will boost the short period wind wave swell. This will pick up east facing shore surf by another foot or two into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov