Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to moderate trade winds will hold in place through Tuesday, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts during the overnight and early morning hours, and a few showers developing over leeward and interior areas each afternoon. Moderate trades and more typical windward and mauka showers will return late Tuesday and continue through the upcoming weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a west to east oriented ridge of high pressure centered around 675 miles north of Honolulu, is driving gentle to moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions across Maui and the Big Island, with partly cloudy skies across the rest of the state. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a shower or two drifting leeward from time to time. Main short term concerns revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next few days.
The trades are expected to remain in the gentle to moderate range through early Tuesday, as the ridge north of the islands weakens. A new high building north of the islands should increase trades back to moderate levels beginning late Tuesday, with locally breezy conditions possible by late in the upcoming weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather will prevail this morning. A slightly lighter wind pattern this afternoon through much of Tuesday, will have showers favoring interior and leeward areas during the afternoon and early evening hours, and locations near the coast at night and during the morning. A more typical trade wind pattern is expected Tuesday night through the upcoming weekend, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Aviation

As the high far north of the area weakens, trade winds have been easing into the light to moderate category, which will persist at least through tonight. Conditions will be VFR predominantly, with MVFR in lower clouds and showers mainly affecting windward and mauka sections statewide. Also, an upper level disturbance northeast of the area will help to enhance showers over and near the isles, with the Big Island being most impacted during afternoon hours.
The AIRMET for mountain obscuration, affecting the Big Island and Maui, was cancelled at the last issuance time. Conditions had improved over both isles.

Marine

A weak high pressure ridge will remain far north of the state this week due to a frontal system passing far north of the area. Trade winds will hold in the gentle to moderate range through Tuesday, then increase into the moderate to fresh range from late Tuesday through the upcoming weekend. Winds are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the week.
A series of small long period south swells will maintain surf heights near seasonal averages over the next few days along south facing shores. Surf heights along east facing shores will trend lower over the next few days. No significant swells are expected from the north or west direction through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov