Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 70. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 59 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 42 to 56. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 59 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 68. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will persist through tonight then trend down Wednesday into Thursday, before strengthening again Friday through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas, with a few showers spreading to leeward areas. Increasing moisture combined with an upper disturbance settling southward into the area will result in better windward shower coverage Friday through early next week, with some reaching leeward areas at times.

Discussion

Current radar imagery shows increased shower activity across much of the state's windward areas early this morning, with rainfall amounts highest over Maui and the Big Island ranging from around a quarter to half of an inch. The soundings this morning show a slightly weaker inversion, indicating the start of a weakening in the upper level ridge over the area.
The breezy trade pattern will hold through tonight, before trending down late Wednesday into Thursday as a weakness develops within the ridge north of the state. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop west of the state Wednesday, bringing an increase in high clouds over the area, though no marked change in the typical trade shower pattern or intensity.
For Friday through the weekend, the models are showing the upper- level trough west of the area deepening and moving over the state. Surface high pressure will also strengthen north of the area, which will lead to breezy to locally strong trades. The upper trough combined with increasing moisture will lead to a wet trade wind pattern across the state with some heavy showers possible. Heading into the beginning of next week, models show a decrease in overall moisture as the upper trough weakens and ridging aloft rebuilds, likely bringing a return of typical scattered trade showers.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will steer low topped clouds and intermittent light showers towards the Islands. Cloud cover will become focused along east and northeast facing slopes and coasts, especially in the late night and morning hours. Brief periods of MVFR CIG or VIS are to be expected in passing showers.
A weak eddy persists just west of the Big Island, keeping the leeward slopes and coasts of the island intermittently engulfed in clouds. Conditions will likely linger into Wednesday.
AIRMET Tango for low level mechanical turbulence to the lee of higher terrain remains in effect. Conditions are expected to persist through 24 hours and likely beyond.

Marine

High pressure far northeast of the islands will gradually shift southeastward into Wednesday. This will maintain a tight enough pressure gradient back across the eastern Pacific to allow locally fresh to moderate trade winds to continue through the day. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui County and Big Island into early Wednesday morning. As the high weakens Wednesday and Thursday, trades will follow suit and ease below SCA criteria. The high over the East Pacific will restrengthen Friday as trades return to more fresh magnitudes over the weekend.
Declining overall swell will lead to the lowering of both north and south facing shore surf through Wednesday. The falling northwest swell will cause north shore surf to fall below head high today with a gradual lowering into Wednesday. The arrival of the next small northwest swell this weekend will provide a slight boost to north and west shore surf. A fading south swell will produce lower south facing surf through Wednesday. A small, long period south southwest swell will build in this weekend may pick south surf up by an additional foot or two. Rough east shore surf due to recently fresh to locally strong trade winds will slowly drop off through mid week in response to weakening trades. Restrengthened trades later this week will pick up weekend east wind wave chop.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov