Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 65 to 70. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 66 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 56 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 67 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Strong high pressure northeast of the islands and increasing stability will keep windy and rather dry trade wind weather around for the next few days. Scant showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with only light total rainfall expected. The strong winds may blow a few showers across leeward areas from time to time as well. Shower coverage may increase slightly late Monday and Tuesday as remnants of an old front pass through from the northeast.

Discussion

Strong trades continue as the islands feel the squeeze between strong 1035mb high pressure centered near 35N and a well-defined surface trough south of the Big Island. The increase in the local pressure gradient has also been accompanied by the rapid development of a strong and shallow inversion that slopes from around 4kft at Lihue to 5kft at Hilo. This not only forced trades to strengthen today but also provided a favorable environment for local accelerations in the windier locations of Maui County and the Big Island. The wind advisory will remain in effect through tonight.
Dry trades will hold firm tonight into Monday as existing high stability is reinforced by a very dry ~850-750mb airmass moving into the area from the east. Trades will weaken to breezy during this time, focusing limited showers over windward zones as high clouds slowly peel off to the north and east. Trades will usher in a band of remnant frontal moisture Monday night bringing an uptick in light windward showers Monday night. Otherwise, relatively dry weather continues through mid-week as building mid-level ridging brings continued continued stability and ensures rainfall stays on the lighter side.

Aviation

A large area of high pressure north northeast of the state will continue to bring moderate to breezy easterly trades across the islands tonight. Thus, scattered showers will mainly affect windward areas with very little precipitation elsewhere. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with this activity, though not expecting anything widespread.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect below 7000 feet over and immediately south through west of mountains due to tempo moderate turbulence.

Marine

Strong trades will continue tonight, with Gale-force conditions in most of the windy waters around Maui and the Big Island. A Gale Warning remains in effect for these waters through 6 AM Sunday, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in place for all other waters. The trades will ease into the moderate to locally strong range Sunday, then hold at those levels through the work week. The SCA will likely be scaled back to mainly the eastern waters on Sunday.
Surf along east facing shores will hold at or above normal levels through next weekend due the persistent moderate to strong trades over and upstream of the islands. Otherwise, surf along north, south, and west facing shores will remain small through next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov