Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 69 to 76. East winds up to 20 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 75. North winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 68 to 74. East winds up to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 91. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 73 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 71 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trades will steadily weaken and trend drier through the weekend with limited rainfall focused over windward slopes. A land and sea breeze pattern is likely early next week as background trades become increasingly light.

Discussion

A steady weakening of trades will take place between now and early next week due to the concurrent departure of the tropical low south of Hawaii and weakening of the governing surface high over the northeast Pacific. The latter will occur in response to an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska anchoring an expanding corridor of height falls for the next several days. High pressure over the northeast Pacific will subsequently weaken and be forced southward causing the local gradient to weaken and veer to easterly supporting an emerging hybrid sea breeze pattern this weekend. As said height falls force a decaying cold front southward toward the islands early next week, the gradient will further weaken and veer to ESEly and will most likely give rise to island scale land and sea breezes by Monday or Tuesday.
CIMSS PWAT imagery reveals a much drier and more stable upstream airmass crossing 150W and extending as far south as 15N at press time. This airmass, formed beneath persistent mid-level ridging east of the islands, will be ushered into the area by moderate trades as mid-level ridging builds aloft. The result will be a steady increase in stability, an increasing dry character to the trades, and warmer apparent temperatures as trades trend lighter. Shallow pockets of moisture trapped beneath the inversion will bring limited rainfall to windward slopes, mainly at night, but otherwise the vast majority of locations will stay quite dry.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy easterly trades will continue today, with clouds and light showers favoring windward and mountain areas. Although VFR conditions will prevail, brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in and around passing showers.
No AIRMETS are in effect and none are anticipated.

Marine

High pressure far northeast of the islands and a tropical disturbance passing well southwest of the state, are producing moderate to strong trade winds across the marine area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier zones around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Saturday. As The disturbance moves steadily west or west-northwest and further away from the area, while the high northeast of the islands weakens, we should see a gradual decline in trade wind speeds through early next week. Winds should be below SCA speeds in all zones over the weekend, with gentle to moderate trade winds prevailing statewide early next week.
The combination of small, long-period south swells and short- period southeast swells will keep south shore surf near to below the seasonal average during the next 7 days. Choppy surf along east facing shores will gradually diminish as the trade winds ease during the next couple of days, with surf remaining below normal through late next week. North shore surf will remain nearly flat through the next 7 days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov