Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers early in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers early in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 69 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 65. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 87. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 70. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A cold frontal system passing far north of the state will weaken the wind speeds over the Hawaiian Islands through Saturday. Local scale land and sea breezes will expand in coverage over the next two days for most areas. A drying trend is expected to last into the weekend as a weak ridge aloft will increase stability for most areas. Eastern slopes of Maui and the Big Island may be the exception to this rule. A high passing far north of the state will briefly bring back trade wind weather from Saturday night through Monday. Long range models continue to hint at the possibility of a kona low setting up just west of Kauai next week, increasing rainfall trends from Monday through Wednesday.

Discussion

Little has changed in the short term weather forecast with numerous showers over the eastern slopes of Maui and the Big Island this morning. Elsewhere mostly isolated showers are expected. The satellite picture this morning continues to show a stalling cold frontal system far to the northwest of Kauai. Scattered cirrus clouds associated with a jet stream to the northwest of the state will continue to pass over the western islands into the weekend.
The short range weather pattern remains fairly stable with a weak ridge aloft increasing stability across the Hawaii Region. One exception to this forecast will occur along the eastern slopes of Maui and the Big Island, where a few bands of unstable cumulus clouds are drifting into both islands from the east. The high pressure surface ridge north of the Hawaii Region will continue to weaken due to cold air advection associated with the cold front northwest of the islands. This means wind speeds will weaken through Saturday with land and sea breezes expanding in coverage over all islands. Shower activity will be limited in this relatively stable short range weather pattern. Trade winds briefly return from Saturday night through Monday as a high pressure system passes far north of the state. Shower trends will shift back to windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours.
The long range forecast guidance continues to hint at the potential for a wet weather pattern brewing over the western half of the state early next week as a weak kona low sets up just west of Kauai. As expected model solutions with this cut off low vary a bit on location of the surface feature from model run to moder run, increasing the uncertainty on potential rainfall impacts. The precise location of the low center relative to the islands will drive island by island impacts during this time period. This kona low pattern could swiftly increase rainfall potential favoring southern slopes of each island, mainly over the western half of the state with warm and humid southerly winds over Kauai, Oahu and possibly Molokai by Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with this system, Kauai has the highest chance for rainfall impacts as the island is closer to the low center. Stay tuned as the potential for heavy shower activity early next week will evolve as the forecast time period gets closer.

Aviation

Light to moderate east to southeasterly trade winds will persist through twenty-four hours and beyond. Scattered showers will favor the typical windward and mountain distributions as periodic pockets of moisture move through. Overall VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.

Marine

Swell height observations at the offshore buoys northwest of the islands continue to come in significantly larger than predicted this morning. Nearshore PacIOOS buoys reflect this and may have peaked earlier this morning around the high tide cycle for Oahu and Kauai, and now at the Pauwela buoy leading up to daybreak. As a result, the High Surf Warning and Small Craft Advisory for large seas remain in place, which may continue into Saturday before dropping to the High Surf Advisory levels. Heights should dip below the advisory levels by the end of the weekend as the swell eases into early next week.
Trade winds will trend down and veer out of the southeast today as the ridge weakens and shifts southward due to a front passing far north of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly trades will briefly return Saturday through Monday as high pressure builds north of the state trailing this front. Thereafter, an upper low and surface trough nearby to the west will translate to a return of light to moderate south to southeast winds and increasing rainfall chances beginning around Tuesday.
Surf along east facing shores will steadily lower into the weekend as the north-northeast swell lowers and the trades diminish. An upward trend is possible early next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small with mainly background long-period south-southwest swells expected. Some of the typical southerly exposures could see some wrap from the large northwest swell today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Saturday for for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM HST Saturday for west facing shores of Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for for most Hawaiian coastal waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov