Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Independence Day: Sunny. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Independence Day: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Independence Day: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Independence Day: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Independence Day: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 70 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 58 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Independence Day: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 90. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The recent stagnant, relatively dry pattern under weakened trade flow will persist through the holiday weekend. Surface high pressure far northeast of the islands will weaken in response to eastern Pacific troughing. This will maintain light to gentle east trade winds through the week. Upper level ridging over the islands, along with easterly dry air, will ensure continued mainly clear to partly cloudy skies, warmer conditions with little to no statewide rainfall. Shower behavior that produces any measurable rainfall will generally focus along windward slopes primarily during the nocturnal hours.

Discussion

The overall Hawaiian Island weather pattern will be controlled by upper level ridging and a pair of quasi-stationary surface high pressure cells thousands of miles north and northeast of the state. The general early month synoptic set up will evolve with the northeast high moving further away as troughing develops between us and the high. This, in tandem with the other high cell north of the islands drifting further west, will weaken the downstream pressure gradient enough to generally hold light to gentle east trades in play through the Independence Day holiday weekend.
Upper to mid level ridging will remain over the central Pacific and provide ample subsidence. This, along with a large dry air mass moving around the base of eastern Pacific troughing and advecting in across the area through late week, will provide the main ingredients for continued dry and warm weather. If NWP guidance holds true with the characteristics of this unseasonably dry air mass, it will fall within the lower 10th percentile for this time of year (near 0.9 inch pwats compared to early July climatology norm 1.3 inch pwats). The added subsidence will create more clear, island-wide sunny skies. This will ultimately result in warmer afternoon temperatures. Trades will introduce thicker clouds and occasional typographically-enhanced low rainfall accumulation showers over windward (mauka) zones during the overnight and early morning hours. Leeward areas should remain mostly to partly sunny with that rare light shower making its way over the ridgeline. The lone exception to this rule will be those warmth-of-the-day afternoon clouds/weak showers that will inevitably form along leeward Haleakala and Big Island.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next few days. Brief MVFR conditions are possible mainly along north through east slopes of each island. Elsewhere mostly VFR conditions are expected.
There are no AIRMETs in effect at this time.

Marine

High pressure northeast of the state will bring moderate to locally fresh trades through most of the week. By this weekend, the high will weaken and move off to the northeast, causing trades to decrease slightly across local waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and Big Island.
No significant south swells are expected during the forecast period. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.
Flat to tiny surf conditions will continue along north and west facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will be close to seasonal levels through late this week as fresh to strong east northeast trades persist over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small, medium period, northeast swell Saturday into early next week. Some of this swell should wrap into select north-facing exposures as well.
Water levels higher than normal around Big Island, combined with the new moon tides, could cause minor flooding issues through Saturday, with peak water levels expected Thursday. Recent observations from Hilo Bay and Kawaihae show water levels getting near or over a foot above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) / 3 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW), thus a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the coastal zones around Big Island.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov