Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 76 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 76 to 81. Light winds.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 82. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 67. North winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 82. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs around 76. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 76. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 69 to 81. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 82. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to keep the Hawaiian Islands in a dry and stable weather pattern through Tuesday with limited cloud cover. Expect cool morning temperatures in the early morning hours. A weak cold front will swiftly move southeastward across the state on Wednesday with a brief increase in shower activity for each island. Trade winds will also briefly strengthen behind the front as a high pressure system passes by just north of the island chain. Light winds return on Thursday and Friday with land and sea breezes over the western slopes of each island.

Discussion

Extremely stable conditions persist across the Hawaii region today as the islands remain directly under the upper level ridge axis. In this pattern warmer temperatures aloft, produced by the downward moving air (or subsidence) under this ridge, and light winds will keep cloud development at minimum levels into early next week. These temperature inversion heights range between 2,000 and 4,000 feet elevation capping vertical cloud development. Near zero rainfall remains in the forecast for most areas. Drier air above the inversion level will also allow more heat to escape into outer space each night, dropping the early morning low temperatures into the mid to low 60's for coastal communities through Tuesday.
Low pressure systems will continue to pass north of the region into early next week with little change to this stable forecast through Tuesday. Light winds will allow local scale sea breezes to develop each day with land breezes at night.
The next best chance for rainfall will occur next week Wednesday as a weak cold front moves swiftly down the island chain. A brief period of clouds and showers will start near Kauai and Oahu early Wednesday morning, reaching the islands in Maui County around noon, and then finally moving into the Big Island from late Wednesday afternoon to evening. Light to moderate trade winds will then briefly fill in as the front passes through each island. Another round of light winds returns by the end of next week as another cold front approaches the state from the northwest.

Aviation

Overnight, moisture trapped below a strong and remarkably low inversion resulted in scattered to broken transient MVFR clouds across the smaller islands. As a result, AIRMET Sierra was issued for tempo mountain obscuration for portions of the state. These clouds are expected to diminish around sunrise and give way to VFR conditions later this morning.
Stable conditions will continue throughout the next few days with the forecast remaining mostly dry. Light winds will allow localized sea breezes each afternoon with land breezes at night. Regardless, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

Marine

A ridge near the islands will drift around a bit over the next few days, causing trade wind speeds to vary between gentle to moderate and moderate to fresh speeds. A front approaching from the northwest will cause winds to veer to southeasterlies as they become light tonight into Tuesday. Strengthening high pressure north of the area will push a weakening front into the islands, increasing shower chances and bumping wind speeds back into the moderate to locally fresh category, Tuesday night and Wednesday. Stronger winds and much higher combined seas (due to an extra large northwest swell) will likely require an SCA beginning Wednesday for most coastal waters zones.
A NW (320 degrees) swell is forecast to arrive later today and gradually build through Monday. Surf along exposed north and west- facing shores may approach High Surf Advisory levels Monday into Tuesday. A much larger NNW (330 degree) swell is scheduled to arrive Wednesday with surf likely reaching High Surf Warning level through Thursday. A series of very small, medium to long- period S (190 degrees) swells may provide small bumps in south shore surf through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov