Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 66 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 75 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 74 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 69 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 58 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 69 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A stable moderate trade wind pattern with mainly light windward showers will prevail through Monday. Increasing trade winds and slightly wetter conditions are possible during the middle of next week, with breezy trades continuing into the weekend.

Discussion

Little change to the overall forecast philosophy overnight. The latest high-res models and early morning radar imagery show less in the way of showers this morning and through the rest of the weekend. In addition, the 12Z soundings from Hilo and Lihue show increasing stability across the state with inversion heights around 4500-5500 feet, about 1000 feet lower than yesterday at this time. Therefore, have trended PoPs and QPF down slightly to follow these trends.
A surface ridge far north of the islands will maintain the current trade wind regime through the upcoming week. A developing surface high far northeast of the state will strengthen the local pressure gradient over the islands by the middle of next week, resulting in an increase to breezy trade wind speeds. A mid- to upper-level ridge over the islands will maintain the relatively dry and stable conditions through this weekend. Any showers that do reach the islands should only produce modest rainfall amounts and are expected to be focused over the windward slopes, with a few showers possible over the leeward slopes of the Big Island each afternoon.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to show an increase in precipitable water reaching the islands Tuesday or so, although the focus has shifted a bit towards the southern end of the state. Expect a few more showers over the windward sides of the smaller islands, and a bit more of an uptick over windward Big Island. The increase in trade wind speeds during that time will allow some of those showers to reach some leeward areas at times.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through the rest of the weekend. Low cigs, SHRA and MVFR conds should favor windward and mauka areas, with some spillover into leeward areas. Otherwise conds should remain mainly VFR.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Gentle to locally fresh trades continue through Saturday, then become locally strong during the first half of next week. This will likely warrant a Small Craft Advisory for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island.
Surf remains small along all shorelines through the forecast period. Mixed swell out of the southerly quadrant will maintain small surf along south-facing shores tonight and will maintain slightly perturbed conditions through much of next week.
Likewise, small surf persists for northern exposures, although mixed swells out of the northerly quadrant may provide a small bump for the weekend.
A short period NE swell will maintain small surf along east-facing shores even as background trade wind swell subsides. Choppy conditions then return as trades strengthen next week.
The combination of higher than normal water levels and afternoon spring tides are resulting in water levels running over half a foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui. This will cause minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui into the weekend mainly during afternoon peak high tide. Coastal Flood Conditions are borderline around Maui and the Coastal Flood Statement may be dropped there sooner than the Big Island coastal zones.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov