Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Independence Day: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming south 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Independence Day: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light east northeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Independence Day: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with a northeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Independence Day: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 5 to 8 mph.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming east 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. East northeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Independence Day: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Windy, with a northeast wind 21 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Independence Day: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East northeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue today, with a gradual easing then expected through the remainder of the Holiday weekend. Moderate trades will then prevail through late next week. Fairly typical trade wind weather is expected during the next 7 days. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower spilling leeward from time to time.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered around 1100 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies in windward areas, with partly cloudy conditions in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward areas, with quite a few decaying showers spilling over into leeward communities. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends through the Holiday weekend.
High pressure to the north of the state will gradually shift westward through the Holiday weekend, then remain nearly stationary to the distant northwest of the state through late next week. Breezy trade winds are expected to continue today, with a gradual easing then expected through the remainder of the Holiday weekend as a weakness in the ridging aloft raises inversion heights over the state. Moderate trades are then expected through much of next week, with only minor fluctuations in strength.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather is expected through late next week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. A few showers will also reach leeward areas at times due to the slightly higher inversion heights associated with the weakness in the ridging aloft. No significant rainfall is expected during the next 7 days.

Aviation

A moderate to breezy trade pattern will help to generate scattered showers, mainly along windward locations this morning, with a few showers spilling over to leeward areas at times. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility will likely occur with this activity. Showers expected to taper off into this afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island above 2500 feet due to tempo mountain obscuration from low clouds and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect below 8000 ft over and immediately southwest through northwest of all mountains and all islands, likely continuing through tonight.

Marine

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail into early Sunday, prompting a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all waters through tonight. The surface high will drift to the northwest Sunday and Monday, leading to an easing of the trades. The SCA is expected to scale back to the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui Sunday morning and continue into next week.
Long period forerunners of a significant south swell are expected to arrive Sunday with increasing surf energy Monday and Tuesday. South shore surf will likely reach High Surf Advisory levels of 8 feet Monday and Tuesday, and then slowly decline Wednesday through Friday. The current background south swell will maintain small surf along south shores through tonight. Rough trade wind generated seas are running around seasonal average with a slight increase expected today and Sunday, followed by a drop back to average early next week. Surf along north facing shores will get a small boost through Sunday as a short period NW swell moves through.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov