Election Day votes could impact too-close-to-call race for Hawai‘i County mayor

After nearly a year of campaigning and surviving the August primary, this is it.

Today is the day 59-year-old incumbent Mitch Roth of Hilo and 54-year-old challenger Kimo Alameda find out who will lead Hawai‘i County for the next 4 years as its mayor.

But even now, with less than 24 hours to go, there’s no clear front-runner.

“This race is too close to call,” said Colin Moore, an associate professor of political science at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa.

Since arriving in 2011 in Hawai‘i, Moore, who has a PhD from the the Harvard University Department of Government, has developed a deep interest in local politics and public policy, frequently providing political analysis for media throughout the state.

The race is essentially a choice between the Roth administration’s steady approach to county government and Alameda’s less conventional but untested new direction approach.

“Roth, as the incumbent, represents stability and continuity,” Moore said. “His approach is cautious in the sense that he emphasizes steady progress, adherence to process, and a realistic view of government limitations.”

For voters who prefer staying the course, especially those who look to his experience and track record, it’s Roth who offers the best choice as far as comfort of familiarity and incremental improvement.

Both candidates said after the primary that one of the keys to winning in the general election was getting the votes of those who supported third- and fourth-place primary finishers Breeani Kobayashi of Hilo and Jr. Tupai of Hilo.

Moore said Alameda has a slight edge here as those voters are dissatisfied with the status quo, aligning them with his change-oriented message.

“They may be looking for a fresh approach, and Alameda’s focus on government responsiveness could resonate more than Roth’s stead, process-driven style,” he said.

Moore’s guess is that the challenger will likely get about two-thirds of the Kobayashi/Tupai voters in the general election. The two candidates had a total of 15,740 combined votes in the August primary.

Roth and Alameda were separated by a margin of 4,980 votes in the primary.

As of the end of business Monday, 60,072 of the 119,515 ballots sent out to Hawai‘i County voters had been received by the Office of the Hawai’i County Clerk Elections Division. That’s a turnout of 50.3%.

Since it is a presidential election year, turnout will be higher and will include many voters who skipped the primary. Moore said high-turnout elections often see undecided or new voters leaning toward candidates promising fresh ideas, so Alameda’s message of “change” could have broader appeal.

Before being elected mayor, Roth was a career prosecutor. He served 8 years as Hawai‘i County prosecuting attorney and 6 years as deputy prosecuting attorney from 1998 to 2012. He also was deputy prosecuting attorney for the City and County of Honolulu from 1993 to 1998.

Following the primary in August, Roth spoke about his accomplishments as mayor, including the addition of 8,100 housing units that have been put into the pipeline in the county. He said several housing communities have been completed in the past few months and others have broken ground.

The county’s building permitting system has also improved to be the best in the state, but Roth said there’s still room for improvement. But he said more single home permits have been issued on the Big Island in the past 4 years than on any other island in the state, more than Kaua‘i and Maui combined.

The mayor said progress has been made in just about every department.

Hele-On buses are in much better condition. The budget to repair and maintain the county’s 302 park facilities increased from $450,000 to $6 million and several projects have been started, completed or planned.

Roth said the county has doubled the amount of roads it paves in a year.

While you still see it, homelessness has decreased and the county is putting its skin in the game to help provide services and assist organizations tackling the issue.

Hawai‘i County Civil Defense has improved communication and notifications to the public in times of emergency and natural disasters. Kaʻū has a newly refurbished transfer station.

Projects to recover from the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and lava flow are moving forward in lower Puna with funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

“We have been doing a lot of work all over the island, whether you’re in Kaʻū, Kohala, Kona, Hilo, Hāmākua,” Roth said.

He said being the mayor is about getting stuff done.

“It’s not a popularity contest, and we hope that people realize that the work, it takes a while to get everything moving,” Roth said. “The snowball is rolling, it’s getting bigger and gaining speed, and if you stop that, it takes a longer time to get everything restarted.”

Alameda contrasts Roth’s steady approach by pushing for change with a more dynamic, reform-oriented message.

He most recently served as chief of the Hawai‘i Island Fentanyl Task Force and previously was the executive director for the Hawai‘i County Office of Aging under two former mayors. He also was chief executive officer of Bay Clinic Health Center, helping manage its merger with West Hawai‘i Community Health Center during the COVID-19 pandemic to form the new Hawai‘i Island Community Health Center.

Alameda also previously served as a mental health specialist and administrator for the Hawai‘i Department of Health, among working with and serving other private and public agencies and organizations.

He has not held an elected position.

“His campaign taps into frustrations about the slow pace of government action,” Moore said. “He promises to cut through bureaucracy and deliver compassionate solutions to issues like homelessness and mental health. For voters seeking bold steps rather than small adjustments, Alameda’s message is likely to resonate.”

Alameda could have a slight edge because of his “change” approach when it comes to two of what Moore sees as main issues the 2024 mayoral race has boiled down to: government responsiveness and, to a lesser degree, geographic equity between Hilo and Kona.

Geographic equity has been a significant theme in the challenger’s campaign. He argues that Kona isn’t getting its fair share of county resources and promises to boost representation and investment, likely appealing to residents who feel neglected.

“This is strategic since Kona favored Roth in the primary,” Moore said. “Alameda is working hard to draw some of those Kona voters to his side.”

Roth responded by talking about specific projects his administration has undertaken in Kona, but his approach leans more toward explaining the challenges of spreading resources evenly around the island.

Alameda said after the primary that people around the Big Island — especially county employees — feel neglected by their county government.

“You know, the communities want to feel connected and that’s what we will bring to the table,” he said. “This is a north, south, east, west campaign. It’s not a Hilo campaign. It’s not just a Kona campaign. This is a Hilo, Kona, Puna, Honoka‘a, you name it — every place on this island matters and I think, I believe that our administration will pay close attention to those districts that have been kind of pushed to the margins.”

Alameda thinks his campaign is the change that’s needed now and he hopes the people of the Big Island will give him the chance to prove it.

The challenger might have overplayed his hand here, however, as Moore has heard some voters in Hilo are uneasy about what they perceive as his emphasis on Kona.

In a Facebook reel he said he finds his “why” he’s running for mayor every day and goes on to talk about several phone calls he had with people around the island, bringing up issues from animal control to sewage spills and permitting issues.

“Are we better off now than we were 4 years ago? I don’t think so,” Alameda says in the video. “That’s why I’m running.”

He’s tapped into frustrations from voters who feel government processes — such as permitting and public services — aren’t moving quickly enough. As the “change” candidate, he’s using the government responsiveness issue to his advantage.

“Alameda’s message is that he’ll cut through bureaucratic red tape to get things done for the community,” Moore said. “Roth, on the other hand, focuses on the realities and constraints of government, presenting a more practical view of what’s achievable.”

That might be reassuring for voters who prioritize experienced leadership, but for those wanting quicker, more responsive government, Alameda’s message is more powerful.

As far as the No. 1 issue of housing, Roth as noted above highlights his progress and success on getting new units built and into the pipeline as well as housing permits moving, showcasing a record of getting the job done.

Alameda is more holistic, linking housing affordability with homelessness and pushing for compassionate solutions that address mental health and addiction.

“His emphasis on easing restrictions and promoting ‘ohana homes reflects a vision for immediate, community-centered relief,” Moore said. “Alameda’s approach may feel more responsive to those frustrated by the slow pace of change.”

Other issues such as the Thirty Meter Telescope will play a role in the race, but it will depend on the priorities of individual voters.

Even the fake email inviting homeless people to Roth’s home could generate some sympathy for the incumbent mayor.

The death of Alameda’s wife might also resonate with voters who see him as someone who truly understands hardship and connect with his stance on issues such as mental health and housing.

Roth has experience on his side and benefits from the advantage of incumbency and a solid track record. Alameda’s natural charisma adds a dynamic energy to his campaign.

However, a major asset for the challenger is his strong backing from influential unions such as the Hawai‘i Government Employees Association, United Public Workers and State of Hawai‘i Organization of Police Officers, all of which are major players in the state’s politics.

“These endorsements are powerful because they bring with them the support of the public sector workers and their families, who can be critical in driving voter turnout,” Moore said. “Alameda has also effectively positioned himself as the ‘change’ candidate, a message that resonates powerfully with voters, especially when combined with the support of traditional Democratic groups like the public sector unions.”

His union alliances and message of change make him a formidable challenger against Roth’s stability and experience, especially when it comes to an issue such as COVID hazard pay and overall county employee satisfaction.

Voters have from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. today to place their ballots in one of the 10 drop box locations around the island or at the voter service centers. You can also still vote in person at the voter service centers in Hilo and Kona.

Despite more than half the ballots sent out already being returned, the race could come down to today.

“With the race as close as it is, the impact of these remaining votes could be substantial,” Moore said.