As eviction moratorium ends, Maui’s renters face pricier market than before wildfires

When Desilee Santiago learned her landlord wouldn’t be renewing the lease for the Hali‘imaile home they’d rented for 11 ½ years, she didn’t know where to go. 

It was six months after the August 2023 wildfires destroyed more than 2,200 homes and businesses in Lahaina and 26 structures Upcountry, leaving little available housing on the island.

Her family was able to find a three-bedroom home to rent in Ha‘ikū, but it cost $4,000 a month — more than double the $1,550 they paid for their previous rental.

Worried about families like hers losing their homes and ending up in a market that’s grown more expensive since the fires, Santiago and the Maui Tenants and Workers Association she’s a part of are fighting for more protections and support as the state’s eviction moratorium ends on Tuesday.

Rents have dipped in recent months, but they’re still higher than they were before the fires. And even as dozens of people rebuild their burned homes and temporary housing projects go up, early data shows a dip in Maui’s population that economists and advocates worry will only worsen without more safety nets.

“All of us are impacted by the fire, not just in the burn zone — all of us, our whole island, our whole community,” Santiago said. “And if a tenant pays their rent, they should have stability and affordability with dignified housing.”

Landlords and tenants will be required to go through mediation before an eviction under a law passed in July by state lawmakers and signed by Gov. Josh Green. For now, it may be the best chance for tenants to stay in their homes and landlords to square the books as county officials consider more long-term solutions.

“We’re going to take it case by case and see what the individual challenges are,” said Bevanne Bowers, executive director of Maui Mediation Services that will be providing free mediation under the law. “We’re not going to take, and never do, a cookie-cutter approach. It’s getting the nuggets of information and having both parties understand the other’s decision, and that usually leads to some eye-opening.” 

MAUI’S RENTAL MARKET SINCE THE FIRES: A RISE, THEN A DIP

The higher rent the Santiago family encountered reflects a market that’s been in flux since the fire. Trey Gordner, a policy researcher with the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization, pointed out that in July 2023, the month before the fire, the typical asking rent for Maui on Zillow was $3,435. The website’s data is one of the metrics UHERO takes into account for its annual housing report. Zillow measures changes in asking rents while controlling for changes in the quality of the available rental stock.

Immediately after the fire, rents generally stayed stable due to the temporary shelters and hotels where thousands of displaced fire survivors were placed by the Red Cross. Then, in early 2024, asking rents started to increase around the same time that the Federal Emergency Management Agency rolled out its direct lease program that paid for fire survivors to stay in available units. However, Gordner said, “this is correlation, not causation.”

“The interpretation there is that was the time at which people started moving out of hotels and into the rental market,” he explained. “And there just wasn’t any inventory because there usually isn’t very much inventory on Maui in normal times, not to mention after all these housing units were destroyed.”

FEMA also was targeting short-term vacation rentals for its direct lease program, although some long-term rentals were included.

In January 2024, the typical asking rent on Zillow was $3,576. From January to March, as more fire survivors moved into housing units, the rental market saw a big run up of 14% to $4,060, Gordner said. 

Since then, it’s fallen back down, presumably as people find housing arrangements or leave the island entirely, Gordner said. In December, the most recent month data is available for, asking rent hit $3,738, about 9% more than it was before the fires.

When asked whether FEMA’s program impacted the market, Gordner suggested imagining the situation without it. Maui County would still have the highest rent in a state with some of the highest rents in the country, and housing production would still be lagging behind demand, both by residents and wealthier buyers looking for investment properties. 

“The rental market was already tightening, and then overnight, you wipe away something like 5% of the housing stock with the Maui wildfires,” he said. “So that’s going to be an enormous economic shock, regardless of government actions after, right?” 

UHERO also is tracking the housing and job situations of hundreds of fire-affected households, which means anyone who lived, worked or owned a business in the burn zone before the fires.

Researchers found that more people are renting — half of the 402 respondents said they rented before the fire, but that has grown to nearly two thirds since then. Fire-affected households also are paying 43% more rent for the same or fewer number of bedrooms. Rent for larger units with 3 bedrooms or more has increased the most, by 80%. 

The data was last updated in August, one year after the fires, but within the next month or so, UHERO will start to post updates monthly, Gordner said.

BEFORE THE EVICTION: A CHANCE TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE

The end of the eviction moratorium doesn’t mean tenants will be evicted Wednesday. Rather, it’s when the mediation process can start for landlords and tenants.

Landlords who want to participate must provide tenants with a written notice of overdue rent and notify Maui Mediation Services. Tenants have 15 days to respond and schedule a mediation session. If tenants choose not to participate, the landlord can file an eviction case in court 30 days after the date of the notice. The phases to initiate eviction and mediation are based on the amount of overdue rent:

• Feb. 5 to March 6: Tenants owing a total of four months of rent or more
• March 7 to May 6: Tenants owing three months of rent or more
• May 7 to July 6: Tenants owing two months of rent or more
• July 7 to Feb. 4, 2026: Tenants owing one month’s rent or more

Mediation will be free and confidential. Bowers said the goal is to give both landlords and tenants a chance to hear each other out — some may not have been communicating and could be unaware that their tenant has fallen on hard times or that their landlord is relying on the rent to make their mortgage.

“If you have a landlord and tenant and they had a great relationship … then those are the relationships that most landlords want to preserve if at all possible,” Bowers said. 

It’s not the first time Bowers has been called to offer mediation at the end of an eviction moratorium — the same thing happened during the COVID-19 pandemic. She remembered a wave in eviction notices at that time and is prepared for a similar response.

However, she said, unlike in the pandemic when the government was providing financial relief to everyone, not every renter will be eligible for the disaster relief funds going to fire survivors.

Bowers said solutions will vary by case and can be as creative as each side wants to get. She said she is a neutral party and that it’s up to landlords and tenants to come up with solutions that work for them. 

“We’re just there to see what is possible, and that requires the participation of both parties,” Bowers said.

She encouraged people to visit Maui Mediation Services’ website for more information or to reach out via email at landlordtenanthelp@mauimediation.org or by phone at (808) 344-4255 or (808) 446-0511 from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Monday to Friday.

Even though the eviction moratorium is ending, the Governor’s Office said the rent freeze will remain in place. The current emergency proclamation prevents rent increases unless they were already laid out in a written agreement signed before Aug. 9, 2023.

Since the emergency eviction moratorium has been in place, the state Department of the Attorney General said it has received 247 complaints of possible violations.

The department said 171 were reviewed or investigated and determined not to be a violation, 35 were investigated and the violations were corrected and 41 are still under active investigation. It said it was focused on “corrections action rather than punitive measures” and recommended that people send complaints to HawaiiAG@hawaii.gov. 

THE PATH FORWARD: RENT STABILIZATION, TAX INCENTIVES, OR SOMETHING ELSE?

The Maui Workers and Tenants Association says its goal is not only to advocate for renters but to create better relationships between landlords and tenants. As the moratorium ends, they’re calling for more long-term solutions for the rental market, calling for rent stabilization and a permanent rental assistance fund for fire survivors in a letter they delivered to the Mayor’s Office on Tuesday. They also posted a letter at the Governor’s Office in Wailuku asking for the moratorium to be extended another two months and stiffer penalties for those who violate the moratorium.  

In September, Maui County Council Member Tasha Kama, chair of the council’s Housing Committee, said she wouldn’t be considering any legislation that regulated rent, concerned that it could have a chilling effect on developers investing in affordable housing on Maui. 

But Kama has since changed her mind and says she would consider legislation now, citing worries over President Donald Trump’s short-lived move to freeze federal funding that left many states and social service programs scrambling to figure out the possible impacts. 

Kama and her family were homeless for several years after losing their home to foreclosure, so she knows what it’s like to not have a permanent roof over her head. But she’s not quite sold on rent stabilization, worried it could put landlords “in a precarious situation” where they won’t be able to increase rent to meet rising costs.

She thinks any solution needs to benefit both landlords and tenants and thinks one of those answers is tax incentives for landlords who rent long term. When asked if that would be enough to get people to follow suit, Kama said she and her staff are taking a look at the taxes landlords pay to understand the kind of incentive they’d have to offer. 

Fellow Council Member Gabe Johnson is a proponent of rent stabilization. He’s also the vice chair of the council’s Water Authority, Social Services and Parks Committee that on Tuesday will consider measures to help people after the eviction moratorium ends. 

Johnson lives on Lāna‘i, a unique housing market in which the biggest employer, Pulama Lāna‘i, is also the landlord for many employees, which allows the company to offer housing that they can afford on their salaries.

But that’s not the case in most places. Johnson says part of the problem is that wages haven’t kept up with housing prices.

He said the county needs to look at solutions that keep landlords and tenants from getting to the point of eviction. He sees rent stabilization as a good thing, pointing to UHERO’s 2023 Hawai’i Housing Factbook that shows Maui County had the highest median asking rent in the state before the fire. More than 80% of Maui County renters were considered rent burdened (meaning they spent more than 30% of their income on rent) and severely rent burdened (spending over half their income on rent). 

“Rent stabilization is a policy choice that boils down to the value we place on housing stability and keeping people in homes,” Johnson said via text. “We know from the lack of voluntary conversions of STR (short-term rental) to LTR (long-term rental) that the tax incentives don’t work when the market is so out of control and profitable for property owners. Regulation is desperately needed.”

Mayor Richard Bissen told the Hawaiʻi Journalism Initiative he “remains committed to supporting legislation aimed at stabilizing housing costs and increasing inventory,” pointing to his proposed bill to phase out thousands of short-term rentals in apartment districts that the council will soon consider.

He emphasized “thoughtful decision-making” and solid research in rental solutions.

“Extensive research on rent stabilization reveals that while such measures may provide temporary relief by controlling rent increases, they can also have unintended consequences,” Bissen said. ”These include discouraging investment in rental housing, reducing the supply of non-rent-controlled units, lowering the quality of existing rentals, and creating imbalances in the housing market. Although rent stabilization may seem like an obvious solution, evidence suggests it could worsen Maui’s housing shortage at a time when the County is focused on increasing affordable housing options for residents.”

Santiago encouraged people to make their voices heard with government officials as they consider solutions. Renters facing eviction or increasing rents can also call the tenant hotline for help at (808) 444-1119.

”I know it’s hard to be brave, but … we all have to do it together,” she said.