Are more kamaʻāina leaving Hawaiʻi for a better life? A nuanced moʻolelo

While stories, or moʻolelo, about local residents leaving Hawai‘i for more affordable lives on the Mainland are widespread and told often, a University of Hawai‘i economist says these anecdotes don’t fully capture today’s picture of migration trends.

In a recent blog post for the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization, economist JoonYup Park analyzed US Census Bureau data to explore migration patterns by age, race, and place of birth. His conclusion: “The story is more nuanced than it first appears.”

Park found that although Hawai‘i continues to experience net domestic out-migration — meaning more people leave for other parts of the US than arrive in the islands — international in-migration has helped balance the total net-migration rate.

“We also find that while many young adults do leave the state, a growing number of working-age individuals and Hawai‘i-born residents are returning,” he writes.

Park, a South Korea-born, recent Ph.D. graduate from Duke University, migrated to O‘ahu where he works as an assistant professor in both the Department of Urban and Regional Planning and UHERO at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa. He emphasizes that migration is one of the most powerful forces shaping the islands’ economy and demographics — yet much of the public’s understanding is based on assumption rather than data.

“A common narrative suggests Hawai‘i is losing lifelong residents, especially younger generations who form the backbone of the state’s economy, while retirees move in seeking a better quality of life,” Park notes.

But 2023 data tells a more complex story than the prevailing narrative of locals leaving Hawai‘i for places with more job opportunities and a lower cost of living, like Las Vegas, sometimes called “the ninth island.”

According to Park, about 72,000 people moved to Hawai‘i last year. Of those, 81% — or roughly 58,000 individuals — came from other US states. At the same time, approximately 58,000 people moved out, mostly to California (14%), Washington (11%) and Texas (9%). Maui County received around 9% of all in-migrants.

Park challenges the idea that young residents are leaving en masse while older adults move in. If that were true, it could shrink the state’s workforce, reduce the tax base, and slow economic growth. Instead, he found that the largest net population gain came from adults aged 25 to 44 — individuals in their prime working years.

“This younger generation is driving the state’s general trend of positive net migration,” Park writes. While there is a noticeable in-migration of people aged 65 and older, he says, “the idea that young adults are leaving en masse is not fully supported by the data.”

In fact, more Hawai‘i-born individuals returned to the state (about 12,100) than left (around 6,400) in 2023 — a reversal of pre-pandemic trends when more Hawai‘i-based people where leaving the state than returning.

A footnote in the blog is that the year 2021 was an exception to the pre-pandemic trend of out-migration.

“The 2021 exception was largely driven by an influx of remote workers taking advantage of pandemic era work-from-home flexibility, as well as those returning to be closer to family during the pandemic,” Park wrote.

“This shift suggests a changing dynamic in Hawai‘i-born migration patterns after the pandemic,” Park notes.

However, the 18-to-24 age group continued to show net out-migration, likely driven by those leaving for college or early career opportunities on the Mainland. In contrast, the 25-to-44 age group posted a notable net gain, suggesting some may return to the islands later in life — though Park cautions it’s unclear whether these individuals are the same ones who left earlier.

Net migration for children under 18 remained negative, aligning with a 13% decline in enrollment in public schools over the past two decades. Migration for those over 65 remained stable, with inflows and outflows essentially canceling each other out.

Park also emphasizes that all migration estimates are based on Census data and come with wide margins of error, especially in states like Hawai‘i with smaller sample sizes.

“This limitation highlights the need for careful interpretation of numbers and trends, particularly for smaller subgroups within the population,” he wrote.