Incumbent Mayor Richard Bissen won every district of Maui County in Saturday’s primary election, including West Maui, where the recovery from the 2023 wildfires was the biggest test of his first term, as well as Upcountry, the home district of challenger Yuki Lei Sugimura.

Bissen finished at the top of the 10-candidate field with 15,709 votes (46.1%), while Sugimura came in second with 11,438 votes (33.6%), according to the latest printout on Sunday. Both will advance to the general election on Nov. 3. 

P. Denise La Costa, the only other candidate to break double digits, finished third with 3,940 votes (11.6%). The other seven candidates combined for just 2,025 votes.

A breakdown of voting by precincts shows that Bissen secured the most votes in East, West, Central, South and Upcountry Maui as well as Moloka‘i and Lāna‘i. 

“That’s a very strong sign for him,” said Colin Moore, a political analyst and University of Hawai‘i professor. “It shows he’s managed to consolidate a pretty good share of the vote across the island. It is surprising to me that she (Sugimura) didn’t win her own district.”

It’s a decisive showing given that in past elections, many mayoral and council candidates have relied on their own pockets of support. 

For example, in the 2018 primary election for mayor, former Maui County Council Member Mike Victorino, seen as more of a moderate establishment candidate, won the typical stronghold districts for union voters, while progressive opponent and then-Council Member Elle Cochran did best in districts known for environmental activism. 

In the 2016 general election for the council’s Wailuku-Waihe‘e-Waikapū seat, progressive candidate Alika Atay came from behind to defeat opponent Dain Kane after an overnight surge in support from the last batch of votes delivered from Ha‘ikū, a progressive stronghold.

Bissen’s sweep of all districts shows that in a “very tough reelection fight … he’s managed to connect to different types of voters,” Moore said. 

“His support isn’t totally dependent on a particular region, or … demographic or ideological position,” Moore said. 

Bissen gained the biggest advantage over Sugimura in West Maui’s District 14 with a 950-vote lead. He came away with a total of 2,136 mail and in-person votes to Sugimura’s 1,186 votes, and handily won all five of the voting precincts.

His second-biggest lead was in Central Maui’s heavily populated District 10, which spans Waikapū, Wailuku and Waihe‘e, where he won all but one of the seven voting precincts with a total of 3,340 votes to Sugimura’s 2,513 votes. That gave him an advantage of 827 votes. Sugimura won one precinct by a narrow margin of 247-245. 

In Upcountry, where Sugimura lives, Bissen won each of the five voting precincts of District 12 with 3,371 votes to Sugimura’s 2,712 votes, a gap of 659 votes.

In Kahului, where Bissen lives, he won all five precincts of District 9, with 2,174 votes to Sugimura’s 1,812 votes, an advantage of 362 votes. 

Bissen was not available for an interview on Sunday, when his campaign staff said he was taking time off to be with family after the election, or on Monday.

Sugimura said on Sunday that she was “grateful” to be moving forward to the general election.

“Of course we knew we are up against an incumbent, so we knew that the race would be huge,” she said. “I am grateful … because there are a lot of people who want a change and I’m representing that change.”

Moore said well-known candidates can sometimes be sunk by overexposure to frustrated voters, and it was hard to tell at the beginning of the campaign whether Bissen’s incumbency would play in his favor, especially after the fire and the fact that he was facing a strong opponent in Sugimura, the vice chair of the council.

He was surprised by the results and Bissen’s nearly 13-point win, given that Sugimura had been leading Bissen in fundraising and had an advantage of more than 10 points in two polls, albeit by groups supportive of her campaign. By contrast, a poll by Bissen’s camp had shown him with a 6-point lead.

The fact that he won in West Maui three years after the Aug. 8, 2023 Lahaina wildfire was “a real endorsement of his administration” in the recovery, Moore said.

“He’s dealt with the most difficult thing imaginable for a government executive,” Moore said. “And so it shows that there’s a large number of people in the County of Maui who approve of how he’s handled it or at least willing to give him the benefit of the doubt to continue serving as mayor.”

Archie Kalepa, a longtime Lahaina resident who previously served on Bissen’s Lahaina Advisory Team for the fires, said he “absolutely” thinks people are willing to wait and give Bissen a chance to see more of the recovery through because they understand how big of a blow the fire was. 

“You cannot get it all done in one term,” Kalepa said. “It takes good policy, good leadership to see some of the objectives through in terms of where we are and how hard it was to get where we are.”

Kalepa said he thinks Lahaina is “at a place right now where we’re beginning to see positiveness develop in our community,” and he credited the Bissen administration’s work “to get Maui back on track.” As of last week, 577 homes had been completed and 400 were under construction, with another 597 permits being processed, according to the county’s recovery dashboard. 

But Joe Pluta, president of the West Maui Taxpayers Association who lost his Wahikuli home in the fire, said there may be some perception on the surface that the recovery is going well because people see the numbers, but on the ground for the survivors who are still trying to rebuild, there is frustration over the turnover in county planning directors and the time it’s taken to go through the permitting process and bring back the homes and businesses. 

“The people who I know who are victims like myself aren’t happy,” said Pluta, who ended up selling his property and forgoing rebuilding after seeing what others had to go through. 

Bissen told the Hawai‘i Journalism Initiative on the campaign trail in April that he knew people would likely have different takes on his administration’s response based on where they were in the recovery. People whose homes are rebuilt will likely be happy with the progress; those who are still waiting are likely still frustrated, he acknowledged. 

He has said the county had to prioritize housing first. Earlier this month, the county said that the first permits for the businesses on Front Street were nearing approval. 

Heading into the general election, Bissen’s big task will be to shore up the thousands of votes that went to the other eight candidates. There were also 922 blank votes, that puts 6,887 votes up for grabs, a margin that could cover the 4,271-vote lead Bissen had over Sugimura.

But, that would mean “she’ll have to collect nearly all of the anti-Bissen vote,” Moore said. 

Moore said it’s possible, as a lot of the votes that La Costa got will likely go to Sugimura. He added that For a Better Tomorrow, the well-heeled carpenters union-backed superPAC, will likely spend a lot of money in trying to spur Sugimura’s comeback in the general election. The superPAC spent over $180,000 in July alone for advertising in support of Sugimura.

Voter turnout was slightly better in this year’s primary election than it was in August 2024, which was not a mayoral election year. Of the 116,870 registered voters in Maui County, 34,093 cast their ballots for a turnout of 29.2%, compared to 25.7% in August 2024.

Turnout usually increases for general elections. It jumped to 55.3% in the November 2024 general election. However, that was a presidential year.

In the Maui County Council races, candidates also will have to work to win over the votes that went to opponents who were eliminated from the race on Saturday.

In the race for the open Wailuku-Waihe‘e-Waikapū residency seat, top vote getter Marvin Moniz (11,057 votes, 32.4%) will go against second place Ashley Awakea Lindsey (6,325 votes, 18.6%). Both of them will compete for the votes that went to the other three candidates, who are all progressive: James “Nahele” Forrest (5,317, or 15.6%), Randy Ha‘aheo Konohia (4,328 votes, or 12.7%) and Alan Peter Lloyd (1,651, or 4.8%). There were also 5,358 blank votes. 

In the race for the Kahului residency seat, incumbent Council Member Kauanoe Batangan, who finished first with 14,206 votes (41.7%) and Carol Lee Kamekona, who got 11,181 votes (32.8%), will battle for the 2,475 votes that went to Jason Ababan and the 6,200 blank votes. 

In the race to fill Sugimura’s Upcountry seat, Bobby Pahia has a more comfortable lead but will still need to secure his opponents’ votes in a crowded field. He finished first with 14,360 votes (42.1%), followed by Jon Masaru Yokouchi at 5,989 votes (17.6%).

Rounding out that race were Derrick Cabiles with 5,223 votes (15.3%) and John Buard IV with 3,042 votes (8.9%). There were 5,437 blank votes.

All but one of Maui County’s districts in the state Legislature also will be up for election in November.

In Central Maui’s District 10, Democratic Rep. Tyson Miyake won his primary with 3,747 votes (67.8%) to Ki‘i Kaho‘ohanohano’s 1,212 votes (21.9%). Miyake will face Republican candidate Travis Bumanglag, who got 929 votes in an uncontested primary, in November’s general election. 

In South Maui’s District 11, Democratic Rep. Terez Amato, who secured 2,928 votes, will take on Republican candidate Sheila Walker, who got 1,043 votes. Both were uncontested in their primaries.  

In Upcountry’s District 12, Democratic Rep. Kyle Yamashita won his primary with 3,062 votes (50.9%) to opponent Keoni Kuoha’s 2,465 votes (41%). He will take on Republican candidate Dan Johnson, who landed 985 votes in an uncontested primary. 

In District 13, which covers East Maui, Moloka‘i and Lāna‘i, Democratic Rep. Mahina Poepoe (3,056 votes) and Republican candidate Robin Vanderpool (713 votes) will face off. Both were uncontested in their primaries.

In West Maui’s District 14, incumbent Republican Rep. Elle Cochran, who switched parties mid-session, earned 722 votes in an uncontested primary and will take on the Green Party’s Pa‘ele Kiakona, who garnered 180 votes uncontested, and Democrat Sne Patel.

Paterl won a close battle for the Democrat party nomination with 988 votes (31.5%) to Ashley Olson’s 922 votes (29.4%) and Kanamu Balinbin’s 722 votes (23%).

Democratic State Sen. Troy Hashimoto of Central Maui’s District 5 and Democratic Rep. Justin Woodson of Central Maui’s District 9 secured their seats by coasting through uncontested primaries with no opponents in the general.