Forecasters monitoring disturbance in the East Pacific

Update: 5 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026

Forecasters are monitoring a disturbance in the East Pacific that is currently producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization.  

Forecasters with the National Weather Service say environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days.  

The current movement is toward the WNW at 10-15 mph.  

Locally, tropical moisture and increased precipitation chances are expected by early next week, and the public is advised to monitor the forecast for further updates.

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Forecasters with the National Weather Service are monitoring a disturbance, currently located in the Eastern Pacific. The disturbance is located well to the ESE of the Hawaiian Islands and continued to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon.

By Sunday and Monday, tropical moisture is expected to be in the vicinity of the state, due to the potential development of the disturbance into a tropical system, according to an Area Forecast Discussion compiled by the NWS.

“Most guidance keeps the track of the potential tropical system south of the islands. While there remains uncertainty in the forecast since the system has yet to develop, precipitation chances have been increased for early next week,” the NWS reports.

The National Hurricane Center reports: “Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the end of the week or over the weekend.

Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 30%; and formation chance through seven days is high at 70%.

The public should continue to monitor the forecast as it is subject to change as we get closer to the weekend and details surrounding the forecast become clearer.